Tennessee football’s fate as a program depends on beating Florida

Around this time a decade ago, Derek Dooley was preparing for Tennessee football to host the Florida Gators. Momentum on Rocky Top was through the roof. The Vols were 2-0 and in the top 25 for the first time in four years. College GameDay was coming to town. UT was favored.

This was going to be the game in which the Vols showed they were back. They would beat a top 25 Florida team, ending a seven-game losing streak in the series, and go on a roll. Up 20-13 in the third and then stopping a Florida fake punt gave every fan a great taste of success.

Then they collapsed. Florida scored the final 24 points, winning 37-20. Dooley had said earlier in the week the sky wouldn’t fall if Tennessee football lost. He was wrong. That win derailed all momentum, and UT stumbled to a second straight 5-7 season.

Now, the hype is back. However, Josh Heupel needs to know that if the Vols lose this one, then yes, the sky will fall. There is too much at stake, not just for this series and this game, but for what’s in store for the future, for the Vols to lose.

On the surface, the importance is easy to grasp. The Vols are 3-0, No. 11 in the AP Poll and No. 12 in the Coaches Poll. This is supposed to be a rivalry game, it’s an SEC East matchup, and it’s another top 25 foe coming to town. Also, tons of recruits will be in the stands this week.

All of that makes this game crucial, but there’s a shift in college football right now that makes it even more important. Blood has been drawn on programs responsible for keeping Rocky Top down, and this is their chance to strike.

Florida’s blood is obvious. They are 6-7 and two weeks removed from a home loss to the Kentucky Wildcats. Their quarterback is banged up, and most importantly, they have a new head coach coming to town in Billy Napier. If the Vols don’t win this game, when will they win?

Beyond Florida, though, there is another crucial game happening Saturday that could have a huge impact on Tennessee football. At noon, the Clemson Tigers visit the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Both teams are in the top 25, and yes, this game affects UT.

It’s not ultimately clear, but Clemson may be reeling as a program right now. They lost three games last year, failed to win the ACC Championship and finished outside of the top 10, all firsts since 2014. Dabo Swinney’s public outcry against NIL deals has made him seem less player-friendly than he once was.

Meanwhile, Wake Forest is a program on the rise under former UT offensive coordinator Dave Clawson. At 3-0 and playing this game at home, this is their best chance at an upset. How does this affect the Vols? Well, it has to do with recruiting South Carolina.

When Tennessee football was at its peak, the Vols owned that state. All four starting defensive linemen on the 1998 national title team were from there. However, as Steve Spurrier took over the Gamecocks and eventually Swinney took over Clemson, the Vols lost a pipeline. There’s a reason they fell so hard in the 2010s.

Right now, South Carolina already looks like a lost program with Shane Beamer. However, the Clemson decline could continue, and if Wake Forest beats them while the Vols beat Florida in front of tons of recruits, you could see a shift back towards UT with recruiting that state.

Since the Georgia Bulldogs have Georgia on lock, unlike in 1998, the best chance for the Vols to offset that is NIL money and getting back into South Carolina. One is already in play. This weekend could be the changing of the guard to bring back the other.

More importantly, though, beating Florida gives Tennessee football a chance to reach another stratosphere. That’s because they will then enter a bye week before visiting the LSU Tigers. UT could never have asked for a better time to visit LSU.

This is a program that will likely be winning national championships on a regular basis in a few years under Brian Kelly. However, it’s his first year coaching LSU, and there are going to be some growing pains. Combine that with UT coming off a bye, and they could easily win.

As a result, this Florida game gives the Vols a chance to be 5-0 when the Alabama Crimson Tide visit the week after LSU. Only twice since 1988 have the Vols been perfect when getting set to face Alabama: 1989 and 1998. One set off a 16-year run that remains the best of the modern era. The other was part of a national championship season.

Do you see why this game is now so important? Everything is riding on it. College GameDay is back in town. Tennessee football is on the cusp of being ranked in the top 10. Other programs that are recruiting rivals of UT may be floundering. This, right here, is the best chance for the Vols to cash in on all of that.

It’s the Battle of Yavin if you’re a Star Wars fan. All the chips must go in this basket, as winning will set off a chain reaction that delivers you what you want, but losing will cost you everything. Yes, the game is that important. Heupel should approach it as such.