Tennessee football at LSU: Prediction and odds for Week 6 college football

Nov 13, 2021; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; A general overall aerial view of Tiger Stadium on the LSU campus. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 13, 2021; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; A general overall aerial view of Tiger Stadium on the LSU campus. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /

Two weeks ago, Tennessee football failed to cover for the first time all season. They were 10.5-point favorites over the Florida Gators and did lead 38-21 in the fourth quarter but then took their foot off the pedal and let them score two touchdowns late.

Still, the Vols are 4-0, and if you watched the flow of that game, they basically covered. Then they went on a bye, and now they have a matchup with another team led by a first-year head coach in the SEC, the LSU Tigers and Brian Kelly.

UT visits Death Valley Saturday at Noon ET, which will be 11 a.m. LSU time. LSU failed to cover last week against the Auburn Tigers, just as they did in their opener against the Florida State Seminoles, but they are 3-2 against the spread and won their only matchup as an underdog.

Tennessee Volunteers at LSU Tigers Week 6

According to WynnBET, Tennessee football is a 2.5-point favorite. The over/under is set at 65, and the moneyline is the Vols -150 and the Tigers +125. It’s the first time since 2001 the Vols are a favorite against LSU and the first time since 2000 they are a favorite against LSU on the road.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change

Tennessee Volunteers at LSU Tigers prediction

LSU comes in at 4-1, No. 25 in the AP Poll and two spots out of the Coaches Poll. At 4-0, this is Tennessee football’s first game against a ranked team on the road since 20156, when they beat the Georgia Bulldogs 34-31 off the hail mary from Joshua Dobbs to Jauan Jennings.

Ranked No. 8 in both polls, that’s also the last time the Vols were favored in a game while in the top 10, and it’s the last time they were 4-0. They were also coming off a win over the Florida Gators that year just as they are this year.

Oh, and they were about to visit a team with a first-year head coach, just like this year, as it was Kirby Smart’s first season at UGA. Simply put, the similarities are insane, and it makes you wonder just what might happen in this matchup.

As for the game itself, Anthony Richardson and Florida proved that you can torch Tennessee football through the air with a mobile quarterback. That’s because UT has to respect quarterback’s legs, so it can’t bring pressure, and in Richardson’s case, he made them pay.

Jayden Daniels will be looking to do the same for LSU, and once again, Cedric Tillman’s play is in question. Warren Burrell now being out for the season creates the same issue in the Vols’ secondary. They are on the road this time too.

However, there are a couple of key differences that work in Tennessee football’s favor. For starters, Daniels seems more banged up. Also, he’s smaller than Richardson and has to run more horizontally, so he’s been sacked five times as often.

Then comes LSU’s schemes. They play a lot of press man coverage, which should allow the Vols to be even more dominant. As a result, despite playing in Death Valley, UT has too many things coming off a bye working in its favor.

Next. Five Vols to watch for at LSU. dark

Rocky Top will be well-rested and able to make an impact, and LSU will make too many mistakes. Take Tennessee -2.5 on the spread, as winning alone makes it more likely they win by a field goal or a touchdown. Also, there will be lots of big plays with the Vols’ pressure and LSU’s aggression, so take the Over 65. The score will look something like this: Tennessee 42 LSU 35.