Madison Square Garden will welcome Tennessee basketball on Thursday for the chance of making it to the Elite 8.
Tennessee basketball landed in New York City and is preparing to take on the FAU Owls in their Sweet Sixteen matchup. The Volunteers have passed the Sweet Sixteen just once before in school history and have never made it to the Final Four.
It’s pretty surprising that a team like the Vols, who are practically an athletic dynasty in nearly every sport, has yet to make it to the Final Four in basketball. However, this year is pretty magical, considering the Vols had one of the best football runs in history, so maybe the Basketball team is destined for the Final Four.
But let’s not count our chickens before they hatch and take it one game at a time. Let’s break down the Vols’ path to the Final Four, different scenarios, best matchups, and statistics.
Tennessee basketball’s path to the Final Four
Sweet 16 Matchup:
Vs. FAU: The FAU Owls are the team I desperately hoped the Vols would get to play in the Sweet 16 this year. While I thought they would have to get through Purdue, FDU pulled off the upset of the century as a 16 seed and ended up gifting FAU a cakewalk to the Sweet 16. However, the cinderella run for FAU ends in the Sweet 16. FAU is a good team; they are incredibly similar to Memphis but have much less Tournament experience. The lack of NCAA tournament experience may hurt them in a matchup with the Volunteers in the Sweet 16.
FAU had a great season, but it’s worth noting that they didn’t play a single ranked team this entire season. Sure, the 33-3 record looks good on paper, but any team could’ve done that when given that schedule. If we look at FAU’s three losses, it comes against Ole Miss, UAB, and Middle Tennessee; All 3 are inferior teams. An analogy I think of when I see this type of team is how Cincinnati was in the 2021 season College Football Season. They went undefeated but finally faced a good team in the playoffs and lost 27-6. Another important statistic to look at when analyzing this game is KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margins. Tennessee basketball has a +24.65, and FAU has a +18.44. The Vols have a +6 advantage for this metric because they have the No. 1 defense in the country and showcased it well against the Duke Blue Devils in the Round of 32. All in all, I think that the Vols take care of business.
Elite 8 Hypothetical Matchups:
Vs. Kansas St: If The Vols play Kansas State in the Elite Eight, this would be quite an exciting matchup. The Vols, for the first time in the Tournament, would have a better AdjO and AdjD, according to KenPom. This is the ideal matchup in the Elite Eight for the Vols and would give them the best chance at winning.
Vs. Michigan St: They are very similar to Kansas State in offensive and defensive efficiency. Michigan St. has a better offense but a worse defense, so it will be interesting to see if they can keep this cinderella run going and take on the Vols in the Elite 8. It would be a more formidable challenge if the Vols faced the Spartans; The Spartan’s offense would give the Vols’ defense a bit more trouble, but overall, I don’t see either of these teams giving the Volunteers too much of a challenge to make it to the Final Four.
Tennessee basketball’s path to the National Championship
The Vols might face the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Final Four, which will literally be the biggest basketball game in Tennessee basketball history. Alabama, our biggest rival, in the biggest game, to make it to the Championship. I have chills just writing about it, and it’s the most likely scenario for the Vols if they make it to the final four.
As we all know, anything can happen in March, but Alabama is the heavy favorite to make it out of the South.
I’m not trying to get too ahead of myself, but this is a scenario. If the Vols make a run to the National Championship, they will likely play Houston, Texas, UCLA, Gonzaga, or Connecticut. I’ll worry about going into detail on those teams if we can make it past FAU first.