Tennessee football is coming into the season with more hype than they’ve had in years.
The Vols will likely be ranked in the top 15 once the polls officially come out in a few weeks. While the odds are still subject to change, three spreads stick out to me heading into this season.
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Tennessee (+7.5) vs. Georgia
On November 18th, the Vols will welcome Georgia to Neyland Stadium in the second to last game of the season. This game will not only be a deciding factor for the SEC Championship game but will likely be a make-or-break for the College Football Playoff.
Tennessee Football is no stranger to a +7.5 home spread to their biggest rivals. Against Alabama last year, the Vols were once again +7.5 underdogs to the Crimson Tide, and we all know how that game ended.
247Sports predicts that Neyland Stadium will be the loudest stadium in 2023 when Georgia comes to town, and many CFB analysts predict that the Tennessee vs. Georgia game will be the No. 1 matchup in 2023.
My pick: Tennessee Volunteers +7.5 (-110). The Vols are the best team in the nation at home and should cover this spread.
Tennessee (+9.5) @ Alabama
The Volunteers pulled off the upset of the decade last year when Alabama came to town, but can they realistically pull it off again?
The third Saturday in October of 2022 is a night that Volunteer fans will remember for the rest of their lives. But how likely is it that the Vols can pull off the same upset in Tuscaloosa? Probably a lot less likely than it was last year at home.
A lot of factors go into Vegas setting a line, especially for this one which will probably be changing all over the place until they play in over two months. However, there’s value to taking spreads this far in advance if you think the line will move one way or the other.
While both teams have to go through the bulk of their SEC schedule before facing each other, Tennessee only has one game away from Neyland, which is in Gainesville, while Alabama has two games away from home at Ole Miss and Mississippi State. If the Vols can stay undefeated until this date, there’s a good chance Alabama will fall to one of the two away teams or at home against Texas. Any loss will move this line at least a couple of points down to around 6.5, and public money will also factor into the line as it gets closer to game time, so I see value in taking the Vols at +9.5 now before it moves down.
My Pick: Tennessee Volunteers +9.5 (-105)
Tennessee (-7.5) @ Florida
In the Tennessee Flordia game, last year’s score seemed much closer than the game was, the Vols dominated from start to finish, and there was never really any doubt that Florida would come back despite it being a 5-point game at the finish.
However, a 7.5-point spread in favor of the Vols is surprising. Even though the Gators lost their starting QB, Tennessee did too. No matter who is on each team, this game will be close, so I don’t see why the Vols spread is so large. Tennessee Football hasn’t won in Gainesville in 20 years, and while this is the year for history will hopefully change, I don’t see it being by two scores.
Pick: Pass on the spread for now. I’m confident the spread will move closer to -4.5 for the Volunteers over the coming weeks. I plan on taking this right around game time.
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