Bracketology prediction has Tennessee basketball back in the championship picture

Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes watches during the second half of a game against the Houston Cougars on Sunday, March 30, 2025, during the Elite Eight round of the NCAA March Madness tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Houston defeated Tennessee 69-50.
Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes watches during the second half of a game against the Houston Cougars on Sunday, March 30, 2025, during the Elite Eight round of the NCAA March Madness tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Houston defeated Tennessee 69-50. | Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rick Barnes and Tennessee basketball are reloading this year. In the world of college athletics, rarely are teams rebuilding, and the Vols aren't taking a year off to chase the Final Four appearance they have been so close to reaching the past couple of seasons. 

Tennessee is coming off back-to-back Elite Eight appearances, but they weren't able to win either of those matchups, sending the Vols home ahead of the Final Four. 

That is slowing down Barnes' and the Vols' momentum, though, as they are prepared to come back fighting for another deep postseason run with a fresh, new look. 

Team leaders like Zakai Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack are earning spots on NBA rosters, and the Vols' sharpshooters Chaz Lanier and Jordan Gainey are also gone, leaving a lot of openings for Barnes to fill. 

Barnes knew he had a tall task ahead of him and landed Maryland transfer point guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie, Vanderbilt transfer forward Jaylen Carey, and Louisiana Tech transfer guard Amaree Abram in the transfer portal, along with signing five-star Nate Ament. 

While we haven't seen this version of the BasketVols take the court yet, ESPN's Joe Lunardi believes the talent brought in can produce another great season on Rocky Top. 

Lunardi has the Vols as the No. 3 seed in the Midwest Region, continuing the success Barnes has seen over the past seven seasons. Over that span, Tennessee has been a five-seed or better every year in the NCAA Tournament, including five of those seven seasons where the Vols were a three-seed or better. 

That trend continues as the Vols are paired with No. 14 UNC-Wilmington in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. 

Tennessee could also see some familiar faces in this region. They are also joined by No. 1 Houston, No. 8 Texas, No. 9 Creighton, No. 5 Alabama, No. 4 Illinois, and No. 10 Ole Miss, all teams Tennessee has faced in recent years. 

Based on this projection and previous summer projections, Lunardi sees the Vols as a three-seed or possible two-seed if a couple of games go their way during conference play. 

It will be another challenging season for the Vols in conference play, and Barnes made sure to schedule non-conference contenders, including Duke, Houston, and Illinois, to make sure his team is ready for a run in spring 2026.