Get ready to have your mind blown! When it comes to the Tennessee Volunteers, there are plenty of bowl game possibilities for Josh Heupel's team. While none of them involve making the College Football Playoff, Tennessee stands a chance at getting the best non-playoff bowl out of the SEC, assuming it beats in-state rival Vanderbilt at home. A loss would have them in the middle at 8-4...
Adam Sparks of the Knoxville News Sentinel did a fantastic job of explaining where Tennessee could go in virtually every bowl game scenario. Definitely check it out to get some more clarity on the subject. In short, a win over Vanderbilt either gets Tennessee to the Citrus, ReliaQuest or Gator Bowls in Florida, while a loss to Vanderbilt has them going to either the Music City or Duke's Mayo Bowls.
FanDuel Sportsbook has Tennessee laying 2.5 points at home to visiting Vanderbilt on rivalry week.
Most likely bowl game for Tennessee Vols after a win over Vanderbilt
The simplest and most likely outcome here would be to use chalk. Tennessee beats Vanderbilt to finish the season at 9-3 (5-3) with the head-to-head over Vanderbilt. The Vols would be seen as the best non-playoff team out of the SEC, assuming Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Texas A&M all make it in. If that is the case, then the Citrus Bowl would select the Vols as their first choice.
While the Citrus Bowl is the most likely bowl outcome with a win over Vanderbilt for Tennessee, there is a possibility where the Vols end up in the ReliaQuest Bowl. This has everything to do with Texas. Regardless of if the Longhorns beat Texas A&M or not, there is a chance the Citrus Bowl may select them over the Vols, even if they are 8-4 with a loss to the Aggies... The Citrus Bowl gets the first pick.
As far as the Gator Bowl is concerned, some sort of chaos would have to happen during rivalry week, enough to where only four SEC teams make the playoff. There is a chance the Citrus Bowl would take Alabama or Oklahoma over them, resulting in whoever they do not pick to going to the ReliaQuest Bowl. The Gator Bowl picks after the ReliaQuest Bowl. Tennessee will go there if it is the third choice.
Of these three bowls, Citrus seems to be the most likely, followed by ReliaQuest, and then the Gator.
Most likely bowl game for Tennessee Vols after a loss to Vanderbilt
Should Tennessee lose to Vanderbilt to be 8-4, Tennessee is probably destined for either the Music City Bowl in Nashville or the Duke's Mayo Bowl in Charlotte. Because of the pecking order, Vanderbilt would be ahead of Tennessee by two games with a 10-2 record, assuming they do not make the playoff. It goes Citrus, ReliaQuest, Gator and then either the Music City or the Duke's Mayo Bowl.
From Sparks' writing, it seems as though Tennessee would prefer the Music City Bowl to stay in-state with an 8-4 record, as opposed to traveling to Charlotte for the Duke's Mayo Bowl. The big key in it potentially being Duke's Mayo Bowl is if Vanderbilt makes the playoff or not at 10-2. If could knock things down a peg, especially if only four SEC teams make the playoff, with Vanderbilt making it in,.
It should be noted ESPN's Kyle Bonagura has Tennessee playing Lousville in the Duke's Mayo Bowl, which largely indicates Vanderbilt beat the Vols, but did not make the playoff in this scenario. Either way, a win over the 'Dores gets Tennessee to a Floridian Bowl game, while a loss has them playing either in Nashville or Charlotte. For the sake of simplicity, just beat Vanderbilt to go to a Florida bowl.
The most likely bowl game with a win is the Citrus, while the most likely with the loss is the Music City.