Tennessee football given 5.5% chance to win SEC

Tennessee football is preparing for year four under head coach Josh Heupel, who will look to continue building positive momentum and a possible College Football Playoff bid with the new expanded playoff.

There is also a lot of new in the SEC this year. Texas and Oklahoma will officially join the SEC on July 1, 2024, which will make 16 total teams in the league. As a result, the SEC is eliminating divisions and will send the two teams with the best conference records to Atlanta for the SEC Championship.

With the addition of Texas and Oklahoma and the elimination of divisions, Tennessee has a small chance of going to Atlanta and winning the SEC. The Vols have the fifth-best odds at 5.5% chance at winning the conference.

ESPN's Football Power Index has four teams ahead of the Vols. ESPN gives Georgia the highest chance to win the SEC at 32.8%, Texas at 24.2%, 14.4%, and Missouri 5.9%.

Part of the reason Tennessee's odds are so low is because Georgia and Alabama still stand at the top of the SEC until someone knocks them off. The addition of Texas adds another National Championship contender to the SEC, presumably ahead of the Vols.

Another reason is Tennessee is replacing a lot on both sides of the ball. Tennessee had to jump in the portal to rebuild its secondary and are also relying on a redshirt freshman to run the offense at a high level. There's plenty of experience surrounding Nico Iamaleava but it will be up to him to make the plays and put Tennessee in a position to win at least 10 games this year.

Missouri ranks just above Tennessee, which I would assume is a result of a lot of experience at quarterback. Brady Cook is entering his fifth season at Missouri, and his third year as the starting quarterback. Add All-SEC receiver Luther Burden to the mix and Mizzou's offense is a threat against any defense in the country.

Tennessee has plenty of threats on both sides of the ball, too. Bru McCoy is returning for his fifth year, Squirrel White and transfer Chris Brazzell are fast deep threats, and Heupel has built a strong offensive line in front of Nico.

Time will tell if all of that will be enough for Tennessee to overcome the SEC gauntlet. With the new SEC structure, Tennessee's schedule will look a little different. The Vols' conference games will be at Oklahoma, at Arkansas, vs Florida, vs Alabama, vs Kentucky, vs Mississippi State, at Georgia, and at Vanderbilt.