Why Tennessee football is not a national title contender and why it doesn’t matter

Tennessee football is preparing for another season in which it could be at or near the top of the SEC and national rankings. Josh Heupel and the Vols have the potential to make the College Football Playoff, but one major statistic eliminates them before the season has even started. 

A team can win a national championship without a large amount of blue-chip athletes, although it isn't as common as it used to be in years past. CBS Sports looks at the blue-chip ratio to predict which teams have a realistic chance of winning this year's national championship. 

"Since its inception in 2013, the Blue-Chip Ratio has been referenced by all major broadcast networks and closely monitored by head coaches and administrators, CBS Sports' Bud Elliott writes. "Although it's not the most complex calculation, it's an excellent method for identifying the top 10% of teams that realistically have a shot at winning the title.

"In simple terms: To win the national championship, college football teams need to sign more four- and five-star recruits (AKA "Blue Chips") than two- and three-star players over the previous four recruiting classes."

This isn't a solid list of teams that can or will win the national championship this season, but the percentage of blue-chip athletes (four or five stars) each roster has. Some teams will overachieve as Tennessee did in 2021, while Florida won't sniff the CFP or even a winning record in 2024. 

Every national champion since 2011 has had a blue chip ratio above 50%, with seven champions' ratios at 68% or higher. 

Tennessee currently has a 46% blue chip ratio, just missing the mark to be a contender by CBS Sports' standards, but that doesn't mean the Vols still won't be in contention when December rolls around. 

Nico Iamaleava is one of the best young quarterbacks in the country. In Tennessee's 35-0 win over Iowa in the Citrus Bowl, he showed that his inexperience as a college starting quarterback won't hold back Tennessee in 2024. 

Nico could take the Vols to the next level if he gets anywhere near his full potential while on Rocky Top. Washington almost busted the blue-chip ratio theory last year thanks to Michael Penix's elite QB play, and the Vols could look to do the same simply by making the 12-team playoff. 

The Vols have revamped their defense with an improved secondary, brought in receivers and elite linemen through the transfer portal, and have equipped Nico with all the weapons needed to compete in the SEC. This will set up the Vols to be CFP contenders regardless of their blue-chip ratio. 

Heupel has also done a great job getting the most out of his Tennessee teams. He's guided the Vols to 20 wins over the past two seasons, and if they can win ten more, they will make the inaugural 12-team CFP despite the lack of blue-chip athletes.