And then there were four. No, the Tennessee Volunteers are not playing in the Final Four once again. They have come as close as they ever have to achieving a new NCAA Tournament milestone as a program without crossing the threshold. To date, Tennessee has still yet to cut down the nets. While the Michigan Wolverines are moving on as the Midwest Regional champions, that is not a good thing.
This is because over the last three years, every time Rick Barnes' Volunteers have lost in the Elite Eight, the team who beat them would go on to lose in the national championship. The 2023-24 Purdue Boilermakers fell to Dan Hurley's UConn Huskies in his second national title to date. The 2024-25 Houston Cougars stumbled in the final minutes to lose to Todd Golden's Florida Gators.
So what does the emerging Rick Barnes/Tennessee Volunteers Elite Eight Curse mean for the rest of college basketball? Well, for starters, only two teams can win the national championship now. No, it is not Michigan, whose fate has been decided in the title bout. Nor is it the Arizona Wildcats, who are forecasted to lose in the Final Four to Michigan in this prophecy. It will be either Illinois or UConn, y'all!
With Illinois opening up as a slight 2.5-point favorite over UConn over on FanDuel, it might be the Illini.
Budding Tennessee Elite Eight curse gives Illinois, UConn a major leg up
Look. This is not everything, but it could be something. The team who beat Tennessee in the Elite Eight going on to lose in the national championship game the last two years may only be purely coincidental. But if it happens a third time, it is really coincidence at this point, or something far more sinister? Either way, the ball seems to be more in Illinois and UConn's courts with the basketball gods.
The reason this might be the case is everyone and their brother is looking at the other Final Four matchup between Arizona and Michigan as the de facto national title. That could prove to be the case, but the winner of that game could be thoroughly exhausted. On the other side of the bracket, a national semifinals win for either Illinois or UConn could be far less taxing. We must play these games!
Right now, the allure of surprise when it comes to two well-coached teams in Illinois and UConn could catch either Arizona or Michigan napping. The latest national title odds have Michigan with the best of the quartet at +155. Arizona is not far off the Wolverines' trail at +170. Illinois is a good ways back with the third best at +420. UConn is bringing up the rear with a respectable +650 odds to win it all.
Should the Tennessee Elite Eight Curse prevail, expect for Illinois to beat rival Michigan in the final.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.