Tennessee football returns home in a big matchup against the No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners. The Vols have a 23% chance of making the CFP coming into the weekend. A win keeps the Vols' CFP hopes alive with a 36% chance of making the Playoff, but a loss virtually eliminates them.
Oklahoma is in the same situation. A loss gives Oklahoma a 7% chance at making the CFP, so the loser is almost guaranteed to be eliminated from the Playoff, while the winner keeps their CFP hopes alive, although they remain a long shot.
Former Alabama coach Nick Saban made it clear that this will likely be an elimination game, saying, "This will probably be an elimination game for both teams."
Saban continued, "Tennessee can make explosive plays, but it all starts with the run game." According to Saban, Oklahoma will have to stop the run and protect the football if it wants to beat Tennessee.
"They are stubborn about it, Josh Heupel is stubborn about running the ball," Saban said on College Gameday. "If Oklahoma can stop them, and if [Oklahoma] can play good enough offense, if John Mateer can get back to his old form, and play good enough offense to keep the ball away from Tennessee, because this can be a high scoring game if they can't do that."
Desmond Howard agreed with Saban's overall sentiment, warning Oklahoma that if they don't do that, the Vols could "blow the doors off them."
"I do agree with you," Howard said in response to Saban. "You do not want to get into a track meet with Tennessee; they're going to blow the doors off Oklahoma if they do that."
Tennessee's offense is more than good enough to compete with almost any team in the country. Joey Aguilar has ignited the offense and made explosive plays a factor for opposing defenses after two seasons where that wasn't the case.
The Vols' defense, though, will be tested once again as Oklahoma's quarterback John Mateer looks to return to his old self before having hand surgery earlier this season.
If Tennessee's defense can get close to its effectiveness from last season, the Vols could make a run, but it is the defensive performance against Oklahoma that will determine whether Tennessee's College Football Playoff hopes remain alive.