Tennessee football finds itself in a weird spot in terms of expectations. Josh Heupel is entering his fifth year at Tennessee, so expectations should be set that the Vols will be at their best. However, it's likely Tennessee will take a step back as Heupel prepares to start his fourth quarterback in five years at Tennessee.
The Vols' loss of Nico Iamaleava is likely to have a minimal impact on Tennessee's success over the next few years, but it is a significant blow to Tennessee's expectations and the lack of consistency in the backfield.
As a result, Tennessee's expectations are down this year. On3 Sports and Brett McMurphy have released their bowl predictions for the 2025 season, and they likely expect Tennessee to finish the year with six or seven wins, as indicated in the bowl prediction.
Tennessee has been predicted to play in the Duke's Mayo Bowl this year against the Duke Blue Devils. While it's not a great bowl, it is close to home and could allow Vols fans to travel to a postseason game to cheer on the Vols for the 13th time this year.
This would be the second time in as many years Tennessee made the trip to Charlotte, North Carolina, to play in a game sponsored by Duke's Mayo. Last season, Tennessee beat North Carolina State in the Duke's Mayo Classic at the beginning of the season.
This prediction is almost entirely because of the loss of Iamaleava at quarterback. It's unclear who will be Tennessee's starting quarterback this year, especially since Heupel typically holds back a quarterback for a year to allow them to learn the system before running the offense. It's likely he won't have the opportunity to do that this year.
Tennessee has two quarterbacks competing for the QB1 spot, both first-year players in the system. Transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar and freshman George MacIntyre both believe they have the opportunity to win the job, while second-year quarterback Jake Merklinger received QB1 reps in the spring.
MacIntyre seemed to impress throughout spring camp and was rumored to edge out Merklinger in certain moments. We don't know how Aguilar will fit in the system, and his late transfer will force him to learn a lot in a short amount of time if he wants to run Tennessee's offense this year.
We still have plenty of time before Heupel and the coaching staff have to make a decision about who will be the guy to lead Tennessee's offense this year, but it could be the Vols' biggest challenge this season, and On3 doesn't seem to believe Tennessee has a great chance at overcoming the struggles at quarterback.