Tennessee football has relatively low expectations entering the season, according to the college football world. The Vols don't know who their quarterback is going to be, and they are replacing a lot of faces in the trenches, too.
That could be a recipe for disaster if not handled right. Fortunately, from the first few days of Fall Camp, it looks like Josh Heupel and the Vols have handled the turnover pretty well.
Kelley Ford, the mind behind the KFord Ratings, also believes Tennessee could put together a solid season this year, despite the change and low expectations.
In Ford's SEC projections for this season, Texas unsurprisingly holds the top spot, followed by Georgia, Alabama, and LSU.
Tennessee falls in at No. 5 on the list with a projected 4.9 conference wins this season. The Vols are tied with Ole Miss and Texas A&M with 4.9 SEC wins, and LSU barely sneaks ahead of Tennessee with 5.0 projected wins in the conference.
v2 Projected SEC Standings
— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) July 30, 2025
🏈Texas is the favorite with Georgia/Alabama the front runners for the other spot in Atlanta
🏈LSU/Tennessee/Ole Miss/Texas A&M are the next tier of contenders
🏈Auburn/South Carolina/Oklahoma/Florida/Missouri have enough to make a run at the CFP pic.twitter.com/kKjfWhRQh4
The way KFord's Ratings are organized, each team is assigned a percentage based on how many games they are projected to win. Tennessee has a 98% chance to win three SEC games, an 88% chance to win four SEC games, and a 64% chance to win five SEC games.
Tennessee could win more than five conference games, and KFord gives the Vols a 35% chance to win six games, an 11% chance to win seven games, and a 1% chance to win eight games.
Looking at Tennessee's conference schedule this season, there are five wins, but Heupel and the Vols will have to execute on the road and avoid another big slip-up, like they did in previous years.
The Vols have a good chance at beating Mississippi State on the road, Arkansas at home, Kentucky on the road, Oklahoma at home, and Vanderbilt at home. If Tennessee drops one of those games, they are going to have to beat Alabama or Florida on the road for that fifth conference win.
Tennessee's non-conference schedule opens the door to a possible nine-win season if the team wins five conference games this year. The Vols should handle business and beat Syracuse, ETSU, UAB, and New Mexico State.