Tennessee football's bye week came at the right time for the Vols as they had the opportunity to get some rest ahead of the final stretch of the season, while other teams throughout college football were being upset by unranked opponents.
Most notably, Penn State all but ended its College Football Playoff hopes with an embarrassing loss to a formerly winless UCLA squad. Add losses from Texas, Vanderbilt, and Iowa State, and Tennessee's path to the CFP became a lot clearer.
Courtesy of some key losses, Tennessee moved up two spots in the ESPN Football Power Index to No. 13, and the Vols moved up to No. 12 in the AP Poll, making the Vols a fringe CFP team coming out of their bye week.
The Vols currently have a 27.7% chance of making the Playoff after Week Six, which is the 17th-highest percentage to make the College Football Playoff. BYU, LSU, and Vanderbilt are directly ahead of the Vols, but that could change with big games against Alabama, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt still on the schedule.
All three of those teams currently have better odds to make the CFP, making them must-win games for the Vols. Wins over at least two of the three could almost guarantee the Vols a spot in the CFP as long as they win the rest of their games.
ESPN's Heather Dinich favors the Vols as CFP contenders in her updated top-12 projection. She has Tennessee as the No. 11 team in the CFP coming off the bye week.
"The Vols had a bye week, but the overtime road win at Mississippi State and the season-opening win against Syracuse are keeping them in contention right now," Dinich writes.
"ESPN's FPI projected the Vols will win each of their remaining games except the Oct. 18 trip to Alabama. If that were to hold true, the Vols would have a strong case to return to the Playoff at 10-2, but wouldn't be a lock.
"What if Notre Dame finishes 10-2? They'd both have good losses, but the Vols might win the résumé battle. Eye test will matter, too."
Alabama and Oklahoma are both ahead of the Vols in the new CFP projection, and the Vols matchup with Alabama in the No. 11 vs No. 6 matchup, returning to Tuscaloosa in the first round of the Playoff.
Tennessee has to handle business against Arkansas before looking ahead to its road matchup against Alabama in a couple of weeks. The Vols and Razorbacks are set to kick off at 4:15 PM ET on Saturday as the Vols prepare for the second half of their season.