It's cliche to call an upcoming contest a 'must-win game' for Tennessee and Josh Heupel, but it's exactly what's on the way against unranked Auburn at Neyland Stadium on Saturday. Originally, the Vols opened as 8.5-point favorites via the FanDuel Sportsbook, which calmed some nerves following their heartbreaking loss to No. 1 Texas.
Since then, however, that line has dropped by a head-turning two points to 6.5, which isn't great for several reasons. To start, it feels like Vegas is a bit down on the Vols due to the news that standout left guard Wendell Moe Jr. is now out for the season due to his ankle injury. Does this open the door for Alex Golesh and his playmakers to potentially pull off an upset in Knoxville?
NEW: Tennessee starting LG Wendell Moe is expected to miss the remainder of the 2026 season, @PeteNakos reports. https://t.co/DofqEMpFl0 pic.twitter.com/VsJTX8Ftgg
— On3 (@On3) September 30, 2026
Tennessee is now favored by 6.5 points against Auburn, instead of 8.5
At the end of the day, the players inside of the locker room aren't going to care about the odds, but it's still a bit perplexing as to why we are seeing such a big change. Moe's injury no question impacts things, though, as the offensive line was downright awful against Texas and its mighty pass-rush in Week 4.
The fact that 10 sacks were given up was a joke, with pressure mounting on offensive line coach Glen Elarbee. With that said, the Vols can only control what's in front of them, and in this case it's a conference clash with the Tigers.
Auburn is 3-1 following a nail-biting 21-15 win over Vanderbilt last weekend. Quarterback Byrum Brown has looked comfortable at times running the Auburn offense, but turnovers continue to be a problem for him. While the veteran signal-caller has thrown for 896 yards and six touchdowns this campaign, he's also got five interceptions to his name.
It's going to be on the Tennessee secondary to make life rough for him, while the defensive line, of course including Xavier Gilliam, will need to apply consistent pressure as well. On the other side of things, we need to see a bounce-back game out of Faizon Brandon to put the bad memories from the loss to Texas fully behind him.
Forget the spread - all Brandon and Tennessee care about is recording a win against the Tigers to potentially improve to 4-1. Brandon was way too timid in the loss to Texas, which Josh Heupel has pointed out several times in the fallout from that defeat. As Heupel said, Brandon needs to 'let it rip' and not be scared to take some chances.
There's a big difference between being reckless and taking some shots, which is exactly what Brandon needs to go against Auburn. If he does and finds success connecting with Mike Matthews, Braylon Staley and others, then Tennessee will be in a good spot to get the job done at Neyland.
Auburn will have an upset in mind, but the Vols must do whatever is needed to prevent that from happening, especially with a trip to Arkansas coming on Oct. 10, and then the MONSTER battle with Alabama for the Third Saturday of October around the corner, too.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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