The path to a 2026 playoff berth for Tennessee football broken down by tiers

Josh Heupel and the Tennessee football program are surely going to be looking to bounce back after a disappointing 2025 season. To put it simply, the main goal for Tennessee next year should be to return to the College Football Playoff. 

The new nine-game SEC schedule looks to be an absolute gauntlet for the Vols. On the surface, Tennessee has a really difficult journey ahead of them, but it's not impossible for the Vols to make the playoffs. Many SEC teams have lots of question marks going into 2026, including Tennessee, so the conference is wide open.

Lets take a look at each tier of Tennessee footballs path to the playoff next fall.

Tier 4: Must wins

Furman, Kennesaw State

Tennessee has two games that should almost be considered free squares next fall. Now you never want to discount any opponent, but Furman and Kennesaw State shouldn't give the Vols much trouble. Jerry Mack, a Former Vols running backs coach, is the head coach for Kennesaw State. He did win the Conference USA this year, but ultimately, if Tennessee is having trouble with either of these two programs, it could be a long season.

Tier 3: Should-win battles

Georgia Tech, Auburn, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky

Auburn, Arkansas, and Kentucky are three teams that can always give Tennessee a tough test, but at the end of the day, they are all schools that have new coaches and should be in a transition phase. South Carolina was a big disappointment in 2025 and could be on a revenge tour, but I still think the Vols are much more talented. On the road versus Georgia Tech won't be an easy win, but they will be losing signal-caller Haynes King and a heavy load of their production on both sides of the ball from their 2025 team.

Tier 2: Swing games

Texas, LSU, Vanderbilt

If Tennessee is going to make the playoffs next fall, these three games could be the deciding factor. They need to win at least two of them, preferably three, so they have some margin of error in the tier-one games. Texas will be at home, and they could be a fiesty squad, but Steve Sarkisian always seems to underdeliver. Lane Kiffin returning to Neyland again should be fun, but in year one at LSU, they probably won't be at their peak yet. Clark Lea has done a tremendous job at Vanderbilt, and a rivalry road game is never easy.

Tier 1: Toughest tests

Alabama, Texas A&M

Alabama, year in and year out, is a machine. They might have a new head coach if Kalen DeBoer goes to Michigan, but no matter who is in charge, they will surely be a national title contender. Texas A&M on the road at Kyle Field will be a difficult test. Mike Elko has done a fabulous job in College Station since his arrival last fall, and the Aggies will once again be a top-ten team next season. If Tennessee goes undefeated in tiers two through four, they can afford to lose these two games and, most likely, make the playoffs.