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Tennessee football: ESPN FPI projects Vols to win fewer than six games

By Caleb Calhoun

KNOXVILLE, TN - OCTOBER 29: A general view of Neyland Stadium during the South Carolina Gamecocks game against the Tennessee Volunteers on October 29, 2011 in Knoxville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
KNOXVILLE, TN - OCTOBER 29: A general view of Neyland Stadium during the South Carolina Gamecocks game against the Tennessee Volunteers on October 29, 2011 in Knoxville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /
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Projections for Tennessee football’s 2018 season are up on ESPN’s Football Power Index. And it’s not looking good for the Volunteers.

It looks like Tennessee football is going to have an uphill climb to reach bowl eligibility this year with a new head coach and brand new systems. The Vols are only a favorite in five games this season so far according to the 2018 preseason ESPN FPI projections.

Should these projections come true, it would mean the sixth losing season of the decade for the Vols and the fifth time they miss a bowl game. So Jeremy Pruitt has got some work to do to avoid what has already been a historically bad decade.

Tennessee football is a heavy favorite in three of their games this year, with  a 95 percent chance or greater of beating the East Tennessee State Buccaneers, the UTEP Miners and the Charlotte 49ers. They were have a 60 to 70 percent chance to beat the Kentucky Wildcats and Vanderbilt Commodores. Those chances exist even though both teams beat the Vols last year.

On the other hand, the Alabama Crimson Tide at home are not their most likely loss. They have an 11 percent chance of beating them but a 10 percent chance of winning at the Auburn Tigers. Their least likely win is at the Georgia Bulldogs, where they have a 6 percent chance. Those are their three most likely losses, and they all come consecutively.

After those three, they are also a pretty heavy underdog against the South Carolina Gamecocks on the road. Pruitt’s team only has a 22.9 percent chance of winning that one.

The Vols’ best chance to pull off an upset comes against three teams. They have a 38 percent chance against the West Virginia Mountaineers, over a 33 percent chance to beat the Florida Gators and a 41 percent chance to beat the Missouri Tigers.

Honestly, the Florida one is shocking. Tennessee football barely lost to them last year on the road, and the game is in Knoxville this year. Also, both teams are going through a coaching change and they both only had four wins last year. If anything, the Vols should be the favorites in that game.

Next: Tennessee football 2018 depth chart projection

But West Virginia and Missouri make sense. Simply put, the season is likely going to come down to those three games. Tennessee football will be at home for two of them and at a neutral site for the other. So there is no reason for them not to be able to pull off at least one of those games. And given Pruitt’s expectations, they may be able to pull off another.

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