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Tennessee football at Kentucky: Five last-minute predictions for Week 10 matchup

By Caleb Calhoun

Oct 2, 2021; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Tennessee Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel reacts during the first half against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 2, 2021; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Tennessee Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel reacts during the first half against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports /
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Oct 9, 2021; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops looks at a replay on the scoreboard during the first quarter against the LSU Tigers at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 9, 2021; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops looks at a replay on the scoreboard during the first quarter against the LSU Tigers at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports /

Despite the Kentucky Wildcats playing this game at home, being ranked in the top 20 of every poll, having a better record by two games and having won this matchup 34-7 last year on the road, their matchup with Tennessee football is a pick’em. It moved there from UK being a 1.5-point favorite earlier in the week, according to the WynnBET betting odds.

There is a reason for that. Josh Heupel’s team is coming off a bye week, so they should be well-rested despite their 4-4 record and 2-3 SEC record. Also, Kentucky, at 6-2 and 4-2 in the SEC, is coming off a 31-17 loss to the Mississippi State Bulldogs and is on a two-game losing streak.

When you add in the fact that Mark Stoops’ team won four of its first six games by a touchdown or less, there is suspicion that they have been lucky rather than good. What will show up with all this on Saturday? Well, this site has already predicted the game, which you can see here. Within the flow of Tennessee football’s matchup, here are last-minute predictions of what will happen.

5. Kentucky will win the second quarter by double digits.

It’s pretty clear that the Vols are the more dominant team when you separate by quarters, as nobody matches what they do in the first quarter, outscoring teams 15.7 to 4.3 per game. However, Kentucky is pretty solid in the first as well, outscoring teams 8-3, so while UT is likely to have the better first quarter, that could be a bit of a toss-up.

The second quarter, though, is where Kentucky will dominate. Unlike the Vols Kentucky actually wins the second quarter, just barely, at 5.9 points per game to 5.4 points per game. That’s not a good situation for UT, which scores6.7 points per game and allows 11.7 points per game then.

On the surface, that’s not too much of a difference, but when Kentucky was rolling, it usually did it with a dominant second quarter defense. Things are skewed by the past two weeks, and facing the Vols is a way to right the ship. The way Tennessee football can offset this is to dominate the first quarter and take back over in the second half.

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