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Tennessee football: SEC, top 25 picks and bets for Week 13 of 2021

By Caleb Calhoun

Oct 9, 2021; Knoxville, TN, USA; A military flyover passes over Neyland Stadium before an NCAA college football game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the South Carolina Gamecocks in Knoxville, Tenn. on Saturday, Oct. 9, 2021. Mandatory Credit: Calvin Mattheis-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 9, 2021; Knoxville, TN, USA; A military flyover passes over Neyland Stadium before an NCAA college football game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the South Carolina Gamecocks in Knoxville, Tenn. on Saturday, Oct. 9, 2021. Mandatory Credit: Calvin Mattheis-USA TODAY Sports /
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Oct 23, 2010; Starkville, MS, USA; A general view of Wade Davis Stadium before the game between the UAB Blazers and the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 23, 2010; Starkville, MS, USA; A general view of Wade Davis Stadium before the game between the UAB Blazers and the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports /

Like Tennessee football, we had a major rebound last week on the moneyline. That puts us in position to make a profit on both the moneyline and the gambling picks. However, it wasn’t all good, as the gambling picks, based on the WynnBET betting odds, took a slight step back.

Week 12 performances (Click here to see last week’s picks)

  • Outright: 11-1
  • Moneyline: 8-1; $435.05 profit if $100 bet on every game (+48.3%)
  • Gambling record: 9-9 (6-3 against the spread; 3-6 over/under)

Even with that .500 gambling picks record, our profit margin is at 52.5 percent, which is just above the 52 percent threshold. Meanwhile, the moneyline deficit got within a percent. That means there’s work to do on both fronts to make a profit after this week.

2021 overall performances

  • Outright: 93-32
  • Moneyline: 70-31; Lost $91 if $100 bet on every game (-0.9%)
  • Gambling record: 115-104-3 (61-50 against the spread; 54-54-3 over/under)

The pressure is on. There are plenty of games this week that could go either way. All 14 SEC teams play, and four have non-conference games. Then there are two non-conference top 25 games. That gives us 11 games to pick, and it starts on Thanksgiving this year. As usual, we’ll go in order and close with Tennessee football in our SEC and top 25 picks and bets.

841. Starkville, Miss.. Thursday, Nov. 25. 7-4 (4-3). 893. ESPN. 9-2 (5-2). 7:30 p.m. ET

Gambling odds according to WynnBET

  • Line: Mississippi State -1.5
  • Over/Under: 64
  • Moneyline: Mississippi State -125; Ole Miss +105

This is the type of Egg Bowl everybody has been looking for. It should be a thriller at Davis Wade Stadium.  Led by former Tennessee football head coach Lane Kiffin, the Ole Miss Rebels are No. 9 in the College Football Playoff and No. 8 in the AP and Coaches Polls. They’re banged up, but they keep chugging along, and winning this game would make for a historically great season.

On the other side the Mississippi State Bulldogs have hit their stride under a head coach Tennessee football almost hired in Mike Leach. They are just outside of the top 25 and two bad calls away from 9-2. The offense is red-hot, and a win here would be another huge step for the program in Leach’s second year.

Prediction

Ole Miss may have exerted all they had left in their win over the Texas A&M Aggies two weeks ago. They’re just too banged up, and this game is at Mississippi State. Bulldog fans will be rocking, and they’ll pull off the upset. Take the under, as Ole Miss’ defense surprisingly keeps it low-scoring, but MSU covers.

Mississippi State: 31 Ole Miss: 24 (Mississippi State -1.5; Under 64)

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