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Final odds and predictions for No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Virginia in NCAA Tournament second round

Mar 20, 2026; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Tennessee Volunteers forward Nate Ament (10) celebrates after a play during the first half against the Miami (OH) RedHawks during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Mar 20, 2026; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Tennessee Volunteers forward Nate Ament (10) celebrates after a play during the first half against the Miami (OH) RedHawks during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

After knocking off the Cinderella story, Miami (OH), Tennessee is now tasked with talking on the ACC runner-ups, Virginia.

The Tennessee Vols have undoubtedly their biggest game of the year today, as the No. 3 seed Virginia will not go down without a fight in the Round of 32 in Philadelphia. Rick Barnes has a big task ahead of him to make the Sweet 16, but Tennessee has a real shot today to pull off the upset.

No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Virginia final odds, spread, and total

odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

  • Tennessee: -1.5 (+102)
  • Virginia: +1.5 (-124)

Moneyline

  • Tennessee: -113
  • Virginia: -106

Total

O/U: 137.5 (-110)

Prediction for Tennessee vs. Virginia

This is the type of game that won’t be pretty. Tennessee is going to have to play very well, as Virginia is going to burn the short cock and look for a good opportunity. The Cavaliers head coach, Ryan Odom, has principles that former coach Tony Bennet had. Virginia will play phenomenal defense and get good looks up on offense. The Caciliers are very good at defending the rim and denying their opponents of second chance opportunities.

I could see this matchup coming down to Tennessee's star point guard, Ja'Kobi Gillespie, having to make a tough shot in a very close game with a minute or so left. The Vols will have to lean on him today, and elite guard play is what advances in March. Thijs De Ridder is a very good player, but Tennessee has the two best players on the court in Nate Ament and Gillespie.

Vols fans should also love the fact that Vegas believes in them despite being the higher seed. This is a very good sign, as the lights shining brightly on Las Vegas Boulevard for a reason. They are typically correct.

Given that, I think Tennessee gets it done. Virginia is a very good team and they have a playstyle that can defend the Vols, but with Tennessee having a better resume and the two best players on the court, I like their chances.

Final score: Tennessee 69, Virginia 65

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