At +700, Florida is even with Duke and Michigan as the betting favorites to win the national championship next season. With Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, and Rueben Chineylu all returning in the front court, Boogie Fland returning in the backcourt, and Denzel Aberdeen coming back after a year at Kentucky to join him, Todd Golden’s team is also viewed as the favorite to win the SEC.
At +2500 to win it all, Tennessee is tied for 10th in the country and has the third-best national title odds among SEC teams behind Florida, Arkansas, and even with Texas. That’s after Rick Barnes completed his offseason overhaul with the addition of Wake Forest transfer Juke Harris on Monday.
Understandably, the betting market would favor the proven commodity in Gainesville with four returning starters, but Tennessee should have SEC Title expectations, and at this point, the Volunteers would be my pick.
Juke Harris gives Tennessee the highest ceiling of any team in the SEC
This season, adding talent in the front court came at a premium. Golden’s Gators have helped lead a charge of programs supersizing themselves with massive front courts to dominate the rim, getting easy buckets on one end, preventing them at the other, and winning the possession battle with a rebounding edge.
That front court combination of Haugh, Condon, and Chinyelu has set a tremendously high floor for the Gators the last two seasons, and will again in 2026, but while bigs sets your floor, guard play still determines your ceiling, and that’s where Tennessee has a real edge.
Rick Barnes teams are always going to rebound. In fact, for all of Tennessee’s flaws last season, if you sort for paint points differential and rebounding differential, the Vols found themselves alongside the four No. 1 seeds from the 2026 NCAA Tournament, Duke, Arizona, Michigan, and Florida. From that perspective, the sixth-seeded Vols made it back to their third-straight Elite Eight shouldn’t have come as any major surprise.
Tennessee’s guard play, however, wasn’t enough to overcome the eventual national champions. Just as Florida wasn’t enough to escape Ben McCollum’s Hawkeyes in the second round. While Golden’s big-man trio is back, Walter Clayton Jr. isn’t walking back through that door.
Barnes has done his best to replace his outgoing bigs, J.P. Estrella, who transferred to Michigan, Jaylen Carey (Missouri), Felix Okpara (graduation), and Nate Ament (NBA Draft), bringing in Miles Rubin and Braedan Lue and recruiting seven-footer Favor Ibe, who may still join the fray. However, rather than chasing the trend and overpaying to do so, Barnes has zagged, and with great success.
Rick Barnes zagged in the offseason of the big man
If the demand for bigs is as high as ever, so is the cost. So, rather than paying up to retain Estrella and Carey, Barnes is banking on his ability to ingrain rebounding, defense, and toughness into his team, and saving his money for a spending spree on positional size and playmaking.
While Tennessee won’t be the biggest team in the SEC, few will be able to contend with as many as four or maybe even five players, 6-foot-5 or taller, who can all create their own shot off the dribble. At 6-foot-7, Harris can run offense. So can Jalen Haralson, at least for stretches, at the same size. And the small guards Tennessee will play, Terrence Hill Jr. and Dai Dai Ames, are both capable defenders.
Guards still determine your ceiling in college basketball, and Tennessee is taking a major upside swing with its smart offseason spending spree. I think it works. With unencumbered free agency occurring every season, roster construction trends can move incredibly quickly. So, while we’re still at the beginning of this supersized era in college basketball, there may already be a market inefficiency to, as Barnes did, prioritize the top guards and wings.
If you can establish great positional size while doing so, you won’t get punished on the boards, or at least when you do, you’ll be able to press the advantage enough on the other end with spacing and shooting to nullify the effect. That’s the bet Barnes is making, and I think it should make Tennessee the favorite to win the SEC, and one of the favorites to win it all.
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