College Football Playoff: Analyzing Every Team That Still Has a Chance

Jan 24, 2015; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer with the Coaches Trophy during the national championship celebration at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

College Football Playoff: Teams That Control their Own Destiny

1. LSU Tigers

They are not No. 1 right now, but more than anybody else, Les Miles’s LSU Tigers control their own destiny not just to get in but to get that top seed. At No. 2 right now, they finish the season against four teams that will make bowl games, three of whom will be in the Top 25, plus the SEC Championship, likely against Florida. That strength of schedule will propel this team to No. 1 if they keep winning, but that’s going to be hard.

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

The first team on here who has a loss and still controls their own destiny, should the Alabama Crimson Tide win out, they will have beaten LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn to close out the season plus winning the SEC Championship game. That’s at least three extra quality wins, and knowing that if they win out there will only be three undefeated Power Five teams, they clearly control their own fate to reach the Top Four. Meanwhile, schedule strength would push them over the top of everybody. So technically, just like LSU, they control their fate for the top seed.

3. Michigan State Spartans

More than anybody outside of the LSU Tigers, the Michigan State Spartans control their own destiny to get the top seed. After all, they are undefeated right now and will have their schedule strength boosted significantly after they play Ohio State, Penn State, and in the Big Ten Championship. It won’t be enough to be No. 1 if LSU wins out, but it will be the next up. Right now, they are ranked No. 7 in the rankings, but they play one team ahead of them, and two others play each other. The other has a loss, so if they finish undefeated, they’ll jump everybody except LSU.

4. Clemson Tigers

With a quality win over Notre Dame already in the books and the Florida State Seminoles on the horizon, the Clemson Tigers definitely will have the schedule strength to remain No. 1 if they win out. But they will fall to here behind LSU and Michigan State if those teams win out simply due to their schedule strengths. However, if both lose and they win out, they can get that top seed.

5. Ohio State Buckeyes

Currently undefeated, the Ohio State Buckeyes are No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings and control their own destiny to get in. But should they win out, even after beating Michigan, Michigan State, and winning the Big Ten Championship, their resume would not look as good as an undefeated LSU’s or an undefeated Clemson’s. Unlike Michigan State, they don’t have a signature out of conference win. That pushes them to No. 4.

6. TCU Horned Frogs

Should they win out, Gary Patterson’s team will obviously be in the College Football Playoff. After all they are No. 8 right now due to schedule strength, but like Michigan State, they play a team ahead of them, and there are two other games featuring two teams ahead of them. The other has a loss. And if TCU wins out, it means they beat Baylor, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. That strength of schedule gives them a shot at No. 1, but all four teams ahead of them in this ranking have to lose. Getting in is in their own fate. Reaching No. 1 is not likely.

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7. Iowa Hawkeyes

The Iowa Hawkeyes also completely control their own destiny to get in. Currently at No. 9 in the rankings, winning out and finishing undefeated would obviously bump them ahead of the two Big Ten schools to get to No. 7, and they have the benefit, like TCU, of two other games with teams ahead of them playing each other. Schedule strength will improve as well to propel them past a certain one-loss team if they are undefeated. Now, getting the No. 1 seed is a different story. These other six teams have dibs.

8. Florida Gators

The Florida Gators join Alabama and LSU as the three SEC teams that control their own destiny. They have one tough game left on their schedule, the Florida State Seminoles. But should they win that and then win the SEC Championship, against a likely very worthy opponent, they will have finished 12-1 with a schedule strength akin to an SEC team. That puts them ahead of a lot of other teams, and it would also be enough to propel them to No. 1 if these other teams ahead of them fell.

9. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Mike Gundy’s team joins three others with an undefeated record, and they are in complete control of their own destiny to get to the College Football Playoff, as they still get to play Oklahoma, Baylor, and TCU. Winning all three would boost them past everybody ahead of them despite being No. 14 right now, as schedule strength could not be held against them. Unfortunately, non-conference play would make it extremely hard for them to get the No. 1 spot, but at least they have complete control over their fate and whether or not they get in.

10. Baylor Bears

With an undefeated record and a No. 6 ranking in the College Football Playoff, the Baylor Bears obviously have complete control over their own destiny to get into the tournament since they get to still play TCU, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State to boost their resume. But unless they beat all those teams and all of these others lose, they have no shot at the No. 1 seed. Their non-conference schedule was way too pathetic, to the point that even if they do win out, they would be lucky to squeak into the Top Four.

Next: Teams With a Legitimate Chance but Need Help to make the College Football Playoff