Tennessee Lady Vols Decline Not All on Holly Warlick

The Tennessee Lady Vols missed the Final Four again under Holly Warlick. But the women’s basketball Volunteers’ decline can’t be blamed all on her.

After a second straight disappointing regular season, the Tennessee Lady Vols failed to reach the Sweet Sixteen for only the second time in school history this year.

A 75-64 loss to the Louisville Cardinals Monday night was the first time they ever lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

Given the history of the program, calls to fire Holly Warlick are louder than ever. A longtime protege of the late Pat Summitt who succeeded her following her tragic illness, Warlick has failed to reach a Final Four in five years as head coach of the program.

And with a second straight year in which the team entered the NCAA Tournament unranked, it’s understandable to believe that the program is declining under her.

However, the decline is not all because of her.

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Women’s basketball historians will point to the fact that the UConn Huskies began to dominate the Tennessee Lady Vols in recruiting dating back to the infamous incident of the Maya Moore commitment.

But that wouldn’t make sense either. Tennessee won two national championships after that and secured No. 1 classes in 2008 and 2011.

They also got a Top 5 class in 2010.

For some reason, though, the performance dipped off.

Obviously, there were the tragic circumstances surrounding her dementia. And we honestly don’t know for sure how far back the illness began.

But Summitt was still coaching hard and recruiting well.

Still, dating back to 2008, coming off back to back national titles, Summitt had a completely new starting lineup.

This group was young but talented. We already noted that the 2008 class was the top in the country. However, as the Huskies were going undefeated with Moore, Summitt’s team lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament that year.

It was a first for her and her program.

Tennessee appeared to return to form in 2009-2010, going 30-2 in the regular season, but they lost in the Sweet Sixteen to the Baylor Bears.

Still, with a Top 5 class in 2010, the 2010-2011 team was loaded with experience and talent. There is no reason they should not have pulled a UConn and gone undefeated that year.

Instead, they managed to lose to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in an inexplicable Elite Eight performance. This was the game that signified the downturn for the Tennessee Lady Vols.

They were clearly the best team in basketball that year. But they lost an Elite Eight game to a far inferior team.

Of course, then came 2011. Summitt secured the No. 1 recruiting class again for the Lady Vols. But then the turmoil started. She revealed her dementia that summer, and while she was the official head coach, Holly Warlick was really leading the team.

Two head coaches separated the group, and a team that was made up of three Top 5 recruiting class, two of which were No. 1 classes, had an up and down 27-9 season and lost again in the Elite Eight.

As a result, the 2008 class became the first Tennessee Lady Vols class in history to not reach the Final Four.

Had Summitt stayed fully in charge, it’s possible they could have won the national title that year. But, whether it was due to surrounding circumstances or the players simply not being as good, they under-achieved in two NCAA Tournaments before that year.

That all happened before Warlick took over as full-time head coach.

Warlick herself brought in two more Top 5 classes in 2012 and 2013.

So Tennessee was still relevant, winning three straight SEC Championships from 2013 to 2015. But they kept inexplicably losing in the NCAA Tournament.

Really, Warlick’s first three years in Knoxville were no different than Summitt’s final four years. Talented teams failing to reach the Final Four became a thing.

Quite honestly, the reason for this is unclear. It’s hard to really dish out blame. What is clear is that the program was under-achieving in the NCAA Tournament before Warlick’s promotion.

Yes, they suffered from specific key recruits going elsewhere, even if they still got solid talent. Brittney Griner was impossible for them to beat.

But it doesn’t explain no Final Fours in nine years.

To be fair, the bottom falling out of the program the way it has over the past two years is unacceptable. And the blame for that falls directly on Warlick.

But if a program is in decline, that’s bound to eventually happen. And the constant under-achieving in the tournament did begin to affect recruiting.

The Lady Vols failed to pick up a single recruit for its 2016 class, and it’s 2015 class was not even in the Top 10.

As a result, they operated this year with a very thin roster, especially when you consider on transfer and a season-ending injury.

So to get back to where they were, Warlick needs to show what she can do with top recruits and a deep roster again.

She has a good chance next year.

The Lady Vols are back on top with the No. 1 recruiting class again, and their top three players from this year are all juniors.

So Warlick deserves a shot to turn things around.

But if next season is like this one, then yes, it’s time to talk about a coaching change.