Nick Saban actually is overrated; 2 fluke wins over Vols prove it

Alabama Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban was called an overrated coach in college football. Two fluke wins over the Tennessee Volunteers prove that is true.

The world was set on fire, and analysts lost their minds after a CBS Sports post listed Nick Saban as one of the most overrated coaches in college football. How could you say that about a five-time national champion who has built an unprecedented dynasty at Alabama?

An easy look at the history of the Tennessee football program tells the story. Just go back to the year 2000, Saban’s first year with the LSU Tigers.

At that time, Saban had no cache. He was a barely above .500 coach in four years with the Michigan State Spartans and a defensive coordinator on Bill Belichick’s failed stint with the Cleveland Browns. But one nine-win season got him the job at LSU. His cache was so low, actually, that none of his staff followed him from MSU.

And four games into the season, he was 2-2 with a terrible loss to the UAB Blazers. So what happened?

A program-changing win

Saban made the incredibly obvious decision to switch quarterbacks and go with Rohan Davey the week the Vols were heading to Baton Rouge.

Tennessee was an extremely young team and had its intended starting quarterback, Casey Clausen, still nursing a shoulder injury.

So the Vols had to go with a backup quarterback in A.J. Suggs against an LSU quarterback they had never seen.

In one great coaching job, Saban’s Tigers upset the Vols on ESPN. It took overtime to do it, but they did it.

The programs were in such opposite states to what they are now that LSU fans stormed the field after that victory. That momentum gave them confidence, and later on that year they managed to squeak out close wins in an upset over the Mississippi State Bulldogs and a 3-8 Alabama Crimson Tide team.

But let’s rewind for a minute. What would have happened if Phillip Fulmer and the Vols did what they should have done? Had they beaten Saban, does anybody believe LSU upsets Mississippi State later that year?

No. The confidence wouldn’t be there. So LSU loses to Tennessee and Mississippi State, meaning they go 5-6 in 2000 instead of 8-4.

And there’s a chance they would not have squeaked out that win over the Alabama Crimson Tide after the Mississippi State win.

So without beating Tennessee, Saban would have gone 5-6 or 4-7 that year and missed a bowl game.

But on the surface, it looked like Saban walked into a team that was 4-7 and 3-8 the previous two years and then went 8-4 his first year.

Building credibility

On the surface, it looked like Saban walked into a team that was 4-7 and 3-8 the previous two years and then went 8-4 his first year.

That narrative enabled him to close off the fertile recruiting ground in Louisiana and secure a Top 5 class in 2001.

But his initial team actually had some pretty good talent.

This archived Chicago Tribune article suggests the Tigers had top 15 classes in 1996, 1997 and 1998. The 2000 recruiting class had a Top 25 ranking.

So Saban was walking into a good team at a time when the SEC West was excruciatingly bad. And thanks to one lucky win using players that did have talent, he was able to sell that he was building something.

It all came down to that win over Tennessee. Without that win, he doesn’t get that Top 5 class.

Without that Top 5 class, LSU doesn’t win the SEC West in 2001. Saban used the freshmen a lot that year, specifically Michael Clayton at receiver to counter Josh Reed.

A second program-defining win

The Tigers, won a bad SEC West in 2001 and were facing the Vols again. This time it was for the SEC Championship. Fulmer’s team was 10-1 and No. 2 in the country.

A series of lucky events led to that win. Fulmer’s lack of ability to keep his team focused was one, as they were only thinking about the BCS National Championship. He even let two of his star players, Travis Stephens and John Henderson, fly out for the College Football Awards show that week.

Both had bad games. Stephens had a crucial fumble that gave LSU the lead in the game. Henderson was part of a rush defense that could not stop Matt Mauck.

And Mauck was the final story in this game. Tennessee spent all week preparing for Rohan Davey again and shut him out while he was in the game. But he got hurt, and Mauck came in. Without preparing for him, the Vols’ defense played awful. And they lost 31-20.

If Davey is healthy, Tennessee football is in the Rose Bowl that year. As it stands, however, Nick Saban is a legendary coach who turned LSU into an SEC Champion in two years.

Want to talk about instant credibility?

Saban put together two more elite recruiting classes selling that brand. That led to his split national championship in 2003. He then bolted for the NFL in 2005.

Success at Alabama

Two years later, with his instant credibility of ‘rebuilding’ LSU, he goes to the most storied program in college football in Alabama with a very fertile recruiting ground.

That made it extremely easy for him to recruit, and he’s gotten No. 1 classes in all but three years there. Those classes won him the national championships.

In fact, with so many top classes, he’s actually underachieved. He should have two more national titles and at least one more undefeated season.

Those top classes are due to the credibility he had going to Alabama. He built that credibility by what he did at LSU. He did what he did at LSU because of two fluke wins against Tennessee.

So let’s go back. If Saban doesn’t beat Tennessee in 2000 thanks to a lucky quarterback scenario, he has a bad first season. If he has a bad first season, he fails to get an elite recruiting class in 2001. Finally, if he fails to get that class, he certainly doesn’t win the West that year or the SEC Title.

Even with the title, though, he doesn’t recruit as well without the fluke events that led to the title win.

And that means no national title in 2003 and no instant credibility to dominate the recruiting field at Alabama.

It all came down to two fluke wins over Tennessee.

Next: Tennessee football 2017 depth chart projections

The success of college football coaches can often times be traced back to one or two notable wins that defined that program. If Derek Dooley had not had the penalty against LSU in 2010 to lose the game, and if his team held on in the Music City Bowl, he finishes 8-5.

That would’ve given him instant credibility to put together much better recruiting classes the next two years, and he may have turned into a successful coach. Instead, he lost all momentum and then his job in 2012.

For Saban, the opposite is true. Two fluke wins over Tennessee built his credibility far beyond what it was when he got to LSU. So yes, it’s fair to call him overrated. He is a great coach, but to act like he’s leaps and bounds ahead of everybody else is ridiculous. Dabo Swinney‘s work at Clemson is more impressive.

Home/Vols Football

Two fluke wins vs Tennessee Vols saved Nick Saban, proving he actually is overrated

By Caleb Calhoun | Aug 10, 2017

Alabama Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban was called an overrated coach in college football. Two fluke wins over the Tennessee Volunteers prove that is true.

A program-changing win

Building credibility

A second program-defining win

Success at Alabama