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Tennessee football: New possible outcomes for Vols season after Auburn win

By Caleb Calhoun

AUBURN, AL - OCTOBER 13: Director of Athletics Phillip Fulmer celebrates with defensive lineman Kyle Phillips #5 of the Tennessee Volunteers after defeating the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium on October 13, 2018 in Auburn, Alabama. (Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images)
AUBURN, AL - OCTOBER 13: Director of Athletics Phillip Fulmer celebrates with defensive lineman Kyle Phillips #5 of the Tennessee Volunteers after defeating the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium on October 13, 2018 in Auburn, Alabama. (Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images) /
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By defeating the Auburn Tigers on the road, Tennessee football has many new possibilities for outcomes in 2018. Here is how the Volunteers could finish.

Coming off a 4-8 season, Tennessee football entered 2018 with only three circled victories: the ETSU Bucs, UTEP Miners and Charlotte 49ers. They also had four toss-up games in the Florida Gators, Kentucky Wildcats, Missouri Tigers and Vanderbilt Commodores. Then there were two likely losses in the West Virginia Mountaineers and South Carolina Gamecocks.

The absolute best-case scenario for the Vols on the season was to finish 9-3, and that was with two major upsets. When they dropped a likely loss on the year and a toss-up game, that best-case scenario reset to 7-5.

Heading into a bye with a 2-3 record thanks to losses to West Virginia, Florida, and the Georgia Bulldogs, this team was in trouble. Georgia was one of the circled losses for Tennessee football. The other two were the Alabama Crimson Tide and, yes, the Auburn Tigers.

Well, by beating Auburn on Saturday, it’s time to reset expectations again for Jeremy Pruitt’s first team. Going 7-5 involved shocking South Carolina and then winning all the toss-up games, which now look difficult against Kentucky and Missouri. Vanderbilt is still a toss-up since it’s on the road.

However, there’s a whole new set of possibilities. The Vols are a sure bet to get four wins now with Charlotte. They are a sure bet for four losses with Alabama. They are likely to have five losses with South Carolina on the road, but that win looks much more plausible now.

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In fact, I’m willing to say it’s more likely that the Vols beat Kentucky, Missouri AND Vanderbilt than it is for them to lose to South Carolina and two of those teams. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

Since two of those final three toss-up games are at home, it was always a solid bet for Tennessee football to win two of them. With the Auburn win, that means par for the Vols is now getting to 6-6, which was an uphill climb beforehand. As Rocky Top Insider noted, numerous major services now project them to reach a bowl game.

It also makes 7-5 no longer a best-case scenario for the Vols but one in which they could realistically achieve. Although a little less likely than 6-6, is it crazy to think that they can’t win all three toss-up games? It isn’t anymore after the Auburn win.

Finally, that win also puts South Carolina in play. I said their best hope was to somehow split Auburn and South Carolina off the bye with South Carolina being the better chance. They already did that by beating Auburn, though, and with Will Muschamp’s team reeling, you could maybe see a crazy upset in Columbia in two weeks.

Next. Top 5 Vols performers at Auburn. dark

As a result, 8-4 is now back on the table. And with a bowl game coming off of that, nine wins is now the best-case scenario. That would be an amazing accomplishment for Jeremy Pruitt and Tennessee football given where they started. Sure, it’s still a major stretch. But you can’t ignore that it’s now possible.

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