Tennessee football: Missouri a much tougher opponent for Vols than Kentucky

Tennessee football’s game against the Mizzou Tigers Saturday will be a significantly tougher showdown for the Volunteers than the UK Wildcats were.

There is plenty of reason for Tennessee football fans to be excited about the state of the program after such a huge win over the Kentucky Wildcats last week. It’s the Vols’ second win over a Top 25 program this season under first-year head coach Jeremy Pruitt.

And with a 5-5 record now, Rocky Top is filled with excitement about the chance to reach a bowl game. However, it’s time to pump the brakes a bit. The Vols have a much tougher opponent heading to Knoxville this weekend than what they faced last Saturday.

Missouri does come to Knoxville with a 6-4 record, and they’re unranked. Meanwhile, Kentucky came in with a 7-2 record and in the Top 15. So on paper, it appeared that they were the much tougher opponent.

However, a close look reveals that Mizzou is way tougher. For starters, Missouri actually beat Kentucky. A horrible pass interference call by one of the referees extended that game and gave the Wildcats one more play, a play they scored a touchdown on to win.

So if not for that, the Tigers would be 7-3 right now while the Wildcats, who are currently 7-3, would be 6-4. Kentucky’s only claim to fame over Mizzou would be their win over the South Carolina Gamecocks. But Barry Odom’s team dominated that game, and only a rain-soaked third quarter kept them from winning.

Two fluke losses have kept Missouri from being 8-2 this year with their only blemishes coming to the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide. That’s nothing to be ashamed of. These guys just haven’t had the luck other teams have had.

Look at common opponents between Mizzou and Kentucky. Ask Georgia who was tougher to put away. You can ask Florida which team gave them a worse beatdown. The two looked similar against the Vanderbilt Commodores.

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When they face Tennessee football at Neyland Stadium on Saturday, the Tigers will have the advantage. Last week, the Vols used their head coach, who is known for his defensive genius, to take advantage of a one-dimensional Kentucky offense.

What’s going to happen against Missouri, a team that has more balance than almost anybody in the SEC under former Tennessee football head coach Derek Dooley, who is their offensive coordinator? Things will clearly more difficult.

Pruitt can’t sell out to stop one player, and his offense actually has to keep up. That puts more pressure on Tyson Helton as well, and it makes the game more difficult altogether. The fact of the matter is Missouri is tougher than Kentucky by every standard.

By the way, math agrees with me too. Even before beating the Wildcats, ESPN’s Football Power Index gave Tennessee football a much better chance to win that game than the game against Mizzou. Now, after the win, the FPI still only gives them a 31.6 percent chance to win the game.

Vegas is taking note. Missouri opened as a five-point favorite over the Vols, and that line has now moved to six points. The same thing happened with Kentucky last week. So the bettors aren’t reading too much into the Vols’ win either. It’s clearly more of an indictment against the Wildcats, who at one point were the most fraudulent 7-1 SEC team of all time.

So the pressure is on Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols. Beating the Missouri Tigers, a completely different type of opponent from the Kentucky Wildcats, would mean a lot for the Tennessee football program. And it would show their versatility and ability to handle talent from wherever it hits them. That’s a huge deal for the program going forward.