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Tennessee basketball: 5 reasons Vols are a lock for the Final Four

By Billy Williford

PHOENIX, ARIZONA - DECEMBER 09: Jordan Bowden #23 of the Tennessee Volunteers celebrates after defeating the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the game at Talking Stick Resort Arena on December 9, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Volunteers defeated the Bulldogs 76-73. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - DECEMBER 09: Jordan Bowden #23 of the Tennessee Volunteers celebrates after defeating the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the game at Talking Stick Resort Arena on December 9, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Volunteers defeated the Bulldogs 76-73. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /
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NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – MARCH 17: Chuma Okeke #5 of the Auburn Tigers shoots the ball during the 84-64 win against the Tennessee Volunteers during the final of the SEC Basketball Championships at Bridgestone Arena on March 17, 2019, in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – MARCH 17: Chuma Okeke #5 of the Auburn Tigers shoots the ball during the 84-64 win against the Tennessee Volunteers during the final of the SEC Basketball Championships at Bridgestone Arena on March 17, 2019, in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

No.3 – High AdjDE rating

Our third reason the Vols are a lock for the 2019 Final Four is their high(ish) adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjDE) rating.

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Yeah, call me crazy if you must.

The eye test doesn’t give off a friendly look, but Tennessee’s defense hasn’t been horrible. In fact, you could make the argument it’s been near the top of the country most of the season.

But, Auburn shot 28-for-74 from the three-point line in two games against the Vols. That’s 37.8 percent. How do you explain that? That’s not great, there is no denying that, but it’s not all bad.

I took a look at the past 16 Final Four teams with AdjDE rating and success in the NCAA Tournament. In 2018, only one Final Four squad had an AdjDE over 40, which was Kansas (47). Villanova (11), Loyola-Chicago (17), and Michigan (3) all ranked inside the top-20. The Vols still shouldn’t have lost to the Ramblers, but it’s that much of surprise now.

From the years 2015-2017, each Final Four team had an AdjDE ranked inside the top-40. How does that correlate with this year’s Tennessee team?

The Vols rank 34th in the country in AdjDE. However, the past four National Championships have had an AdjDE ranked inside the Top-15.

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