Tennessee football: Do Vols fare better with all home non-conference games?
Final analysis
More from Vols Football
- How to Win a GUARANTEED $200 Bonus Betting Just $5 on the Vols vs. Florida!
- Tennessee Football at Florida: Five Keys to a Vols Victory
- Week 3 SEC Power Rankings: Did Tennessee Football’s Win Help At All?
- Week 3 AP Polls: Why Did Tennessee Football Drop in the Polls?
- Tennessee Football: Top Five Performers in 30-13 Win vs. Austin Peay
Tennessee football has clearly been slightly more destined for elite seasons overall when playing all their non-conference games at home. A higher percentage of those seasons were tier 1 and tier 2 seasons than the percentage of their overall history. The only exception was a lower percentage of undefeated seasons pre-SEC.
Meanwhile, they are slightly less likely to have a bad season, as they were significantly lower percentage wise in SEC play for tier 4 and lower overall for tier 5, even if the SEC was higher. What’s clear, though, is an average season by Vol standards is rare when all non-conference games are at home. Here is a look at one final measure to track the Vols.
Percentage of SEC seasons with all non-conference home games
20 percent (17 of 85)
- Undefeated seasons: 50 percent
- One loss or two to three blemishes AND top 10 finish: 33 percent
- Mostly three losses or four blemishes but three games or more above .500: 12 percent
- Zero, one or two games above .500: 19 percent
- Seasons with a losing record: 27 percent
As you can see, 20 percent of all their SEC seasons had all home non-conference games, but 50 percent of their undefeated seasons in SEC had that. Comparing percentages on that front they had a higher percentage of top-two tier seasons. But they did have a higher percentage of losing seasons as well. Here’s what that was like pre-SEC. Average seasons were way below.
Percentage of pre-SEC seasons with all non-conference home games
42 percent (14 of 33)
- Undefeated seasons: 37.5 percent
- One loss or two to three blemishes AND top 10 finish: 67 percent
- Mostly three losses or four blemishes but three games or more above .500: 44 percent
- Zero, one or two games above .500: 50 percent
- Seasons with a losing record: 22 percent
Again, the Vols had a higher percentage of top-two tier seasons, even with their lower percentage undefeated seasons, than their percentage of overall. But how do these things break down overall when you combine them?
Percentage of overall seasons with all non-conference home games
26 percent (31 of 118)
- Undefeated seasons: 40 percent
- One loss or two to three blemishes AND top 10 finish: 35 percent
- Mostly three losses or four blemishes but three games or more above .500: 24 percent
- Zero, one or two games above .500: 27 percent
- Seasons with a losing record: 25 percent
So 26 percent of UT’s 118 seasons in school history have seen all non-conference home games. Averaged out, about 26 percent of those seasons were in the bottom two tiers. Meanwhile, 24 percent was average. But the top two tiers were 40 and 35 percent, meaning they seemed more likely to have great seasons with non-conference games at home.
There’s one final stat, though, before giving our final verdict. That stat is the all-important winning percentage. After all, this is just measuring numbers of seasons, but did they do better overall with all home non-conference games?
Win percentage in seasons with all non-conference home games
SEC seasons: .667 (126-63-3); Overall: .686 (647-296-28)
Pre-SEC seasons: .738 (82-29-8); Overall: .688 (183-83-25)
Complete history: .693 (208-92-11); Overall: .687 (830-379-53)
Projecting the Vols' 2019 2-deep depth chart. dark. Next
Final verdict
That winning percentage changes everything. Overall, Tennessee football has been slightly better in seasons with all home non-conference games than they haven’t been. But their percentage has actually been worse in SEC play, and while they do have more great seasons, they also have more bad ones.
As a result, the final verdict we can say is no, the Vols don’t fare better when they play all non-conference games at home. Now, this year is unique because all four of them are easy, but the history is too inconsistent for there to be any indication that they will be better because they are playing all four non-conference games at home. That’s our final verdict based on all this data.