Second best-case scenario
7-6 to 8-5
Bowl win, multiple games above .500
The range for Tennessee football’s second worst-case scenario and second best-case scenario is extremely thin. In fact, there’s some crossover if you look at how we broke it down compared to the last slide.
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Would you rather the Vols go 6-6 and win their bowl game or 7-5 and lose their bowl game? That’s what this is about, and it gives the same paths as before. However, in this instance, we say it’s a better case scenario in general to win their bowl game.
Doing that gives Jeremy Pruitt a lot more momentum heading into the offseason, and that momentum is huge for player confidence and recruiting. Butch Jones was able to use a bowl win in 2014 to secure another top five recruiting class in 2015.
As a result, 6-6 and a bowl win is better than 7-5 and a bowl loss. But the regular season scenarios are exactly the same for the Vols on this slide and the previous one. We just have the bowl win eliminating the possibility of a losing record and giving them the possibility of eight wins.
Of course, the bowl win falls in the previous scenario if it’s one of those cases where the Vols go 5-7 but get into one due to a need and their APR and then win it. That doesn’t come anywhere close to meeting the criteria for this tier. But a postseason win in general would mean at least four Power Five wins on the year and some momentum, which is a selling point.