Tennessee football: Technically, Vols and Gamecocks can still win SEC East

When Tennessee football faces South Carolina, the Volunteers and Gamecocks will still be in contention to win the Southeastern Conference Eastern division.

One team is 2-5. The other team is 3-4. Both have three losses in the SEC. We already know what’s at stake when it comes to making a bowl game for Tennessee football and the South Carolina Gamecocks as the two get set to face off Saturday.

But thanks to an upset by South Carolina over the Georgia Bulldogs and then an upset by the Vanderbilt Commodores over the Missouri Tigers last weekend, there’s even more at stake than people realize. Both teams are still technically in the East race. And the winner Saturday will still be in the race regardless of what happens the rest of the day, while the loser will be eliminated.

Okay, so with Tennessee football at 1-3 in the SEC and South Carolina at 2-3, this is incredibly unlikely. But it’s fun to think about, and that’s what we’re going to do here. Let’s look at the scenarios for each team.

Starting with the Vols, should they win on Saturday, they will move to 2-3 in the league. After that, their final SEC slate includes the Kentucky Wildcats and Missouri Tigers on the road and then Vanderbilt at home. Given what Vandy just did to Mizzou, all three games look winnable. Should they win out, they would be 5-3 in the SEC.

Kentucky, South Carolina and Vanderbilt would all be behind the Vols, each having at least four losses and UK having at least five. Meanwhile, that’s a second loss for Mizzou. The Georgia Bulldogs and Florida Gators are still at one loss each.

Sticking with Missouri, if they lost to the Vols, they would have two conference losses. Now, they still have Kentucky on the road that same day, and they later have Florida and Georgia before closing out the year at the Arkansas Razorbacks. For this to work, UT needs Missouri to upset both Florida and UGA.

That means they need UK or Arkansas to upset them, but since Missouri plays both on the road and just lost to Vanderbilt on the road, that’s possible. That would give the Tigers three losses, the same as the Vols, while the Vols have the head to head advantage for beating them.

Now, Florida and Georgia really complicate things. But given our scenario, they at least both have an extra loss since Missouri would need to beat them. Before either plays Mizzou, though, they play each other. Georgia, with a loss already, needs to beat Florida.

That gives the Gators two losses. Missouri would be their third. In between, though, is the most unrealistic part of this scenario. Tennessee football needs Vanderbilt to beat the Gators in Gainesville on Nov. 9. At 4-1, Florida has to lose out for this to be a possibility, and with Vandy on the schedule, that will be hard. But if the upset of upsets happens, Florida falls to 4-4.

Finally, there’s Georgia, who we said needs to beat Florida and lose to Mizzou. They still visit the Auburn Tigers, a game in which they would be the underdog right now in. And then they host the Texas A&M Aggies. Should they lost to Auburn and Missouri, they would be just deflated enough to lose to a Jimbo Fisher team that happens to have some talent. And then they would be 4-4.

So let’s recap what has to happen here:

• Tennessee beats South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
• Missouri loses to either Kentucky this weekend or Arkansas on Nov. 29
• Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
• Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
• Missouri beats Georgia on Nov. 9
• Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
• Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
• Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23

Here’s what everybody’s SEC record would be at best for them if those things happened:

• Tennessee: 5-3
• Missouri: 5-3
• Georgia: 4-4
• Florida: 4-4
• South Carolina: 4-4
• Vanderbilt: 4-4
• Kentucky: 3-5

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It may take a lot, but it’s possible. What about the South Carolina Gamecocks, though? Well, assuming they win out, their path is actually a bit easier since they had that huge win over Georgia earlier in the year. The problem for them, though, is they need Florida to lose all three games too. And that’s where that Vanderbilt game becomes a wrench in the process.

But if it happens, they need a few more things. Since they already lost to Missouri, they need the Tigers to lose to Georgia, Tennessee football and either Kentucky or Arkansas. To be fair, if Mizzou loses to Kentucky Saturday, then they can beat Georgia, making S.C.’s path easier. If they win, Georgia would need to lose to both Auburn and Texas A&M. Here’s the Gamecocks’ easiest path:

• South Carolina beats Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M
• Missouri loses two of three to Kentucky on Oct. 26, Tennessee on Nov. 23 and Arkansas on Nov. 29.
• Georgia beats Florida on Nov. 2
• Vanderbilt beats Florida on Nov. 9
• Georgia beats Missouri on Nov. 9
• Missouri beats Florida on Nov. 16
• Auburn beats Georgia on Nov. 16
• Texas A&M beats Georgia on Nov. 23

That would leave the standings looking like this, with every team’s best-case scenario record:

• South Carolina: 5-3
• Georgia: 5-3
• Missouri: 4-4
• Florida: 4-4
• Vanderbilt: 4-4
• Kentucky: 4-4
• Tennessee: 4-4

South Carolina also has other options, including Missouri beating Georgia and then losing to Tennessee football, Kentucky and Arkansas while the Dawgs only lose one of two to Auburn and Texas A&M. Simply put, there are many things in play here.

But what’s clear is that Saturday’s game between the Vols and the Gamecocks is a race for an outside shot to stay in the SEC East hunt. And whichever team wins will still be in it, regardless of what happens later that night.