Tennessee football: Vols offense should stay conservative at Kentucky

Given how great the Kentucky Wildcats’ defense is, the Volunteers have a clear way to win. Jim Chaney should keep Tennessee football’s offense conservative.

The watershed moment for Tennessee football en route to turning things around came against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. At the time, MSU had a winning record, and the Vols were 1-4 on the year with no wins over an FBS team.

But they pulled off the upset at home and have now won three of four to get to one game under .500. If they are going to get to .500, they should employ a similar game plan to what they had in that first turnaround win.

Brian Maurer got his second start for Tennessee football in that game, a week after he started in a 43-14 loss to the Georgia Bulldogs. But he threw two picks and was then knocked out of the game when it was tied at 7.

In came Jarrett Guarantano. But on the next drive, which came off an interception, Jim Chaney shocked the world by keeping it on the ground and settling for a field goal to go up 10-3. Then he remained conservative throughout the second half.

Only three big plays came from a designed pass: a deep ball to Ramel Keyton, a dump-off to Tim Jordan for a critical third-down conversion, and a touchdown pass to Tyler Byrd. Guarantano and Maurer combined to only throw the ball 14 times. They ran it 44 times. In the process, though, Tennessee football got the win 20-10.

Chaney should have the same game plan Saturday at Kentucky. Regardless of who is playing and who is healthy at quarterback among Maurer, Guarantano and JT Shrout, the plan should be to keep it on the ground as much as possible.

Last year, the Vols beat the Wildcats 24-7, even though it was UK’s best season in years while UT fell to 5-7. They did it because Jeremy Pruitt has a unique ability to shut down one-dimensional offenses, and he put that on display in a big way.

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This year, due to injuries, Kentucky’s offense is even more one-dimensional. That’s why they are running a receiver in at quarterback in Lynn Bowden Jr. Assuming the defense does its job in stopping the run, knowing UK can’t throw, the key for the offense is to stay conservative.

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Against the South Carolina Gamecocks and UAB Blazers, Chaney’s conservative play-calling paid off as well, as he ran it 38 and 39 times in those games. Playing tough defenses and mediocre offenses that make mistakes has made more conservative play-calling the answer for the Vols.

Sure, they average less than four yards a carry. But they don’t make mistakes. A legitimate argument could be made that sticking with this formula all year would at least have them at 5-4 right now, as they would have beaten the BYU Cougars, and it may have them at 6-3.

That formula is obvious on Saturday. Tennessee football has a good enough kicker that just slightly moving the ball gives them chance at points. Also, Kentucky is one of the worst at opponents’ yards per carry average, allowing nearly five yards per carry, and Ty Chandler averages just over five yards a carry, as he did last week.

On the other side, Kentucky has an elite pass-rush with so many top-notch guys on the edges of the front seven. They can sack the quarterback and force interceptions, and UT has a bad habit of throwing interceptions this year.

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So the ground game is something that significantly favors the Vols this year. Their goal should be potentially 50 running plays among Chandler, Tim Jordan and Eric Gray. Chaney may only want to throw it 10 times all day.

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