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Tennessee Lady Vols’ whole season comes down to next five games

By Caleb Calhoun

DALLAS, TX - MARCH 15: Smokey, the mascot of the Tennessee Volunteers, performs during a time out in the second half against the Wright State Raiders in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at American Airlines Center on March 15, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
DALLAS, TX - MARCH 15: Smokey, the mascot of the Tennessee Volunteers, performs during a time out in the second half against the Wright State Raiders in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at American Airlines Center on March 15, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /
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Despite being 17-4 and in the top 25, the Tennessee Lady Vols will finally be tested. The women’s basketball Volunteers’ next five games will be brutal.

They may be ranked No. 22 in both polls, and they may be off to a great start under Kellie Harper. But now, the real tests begin for the Tennessee Lady Vols. And it’s time to see exactly where this team stands among the best of women’s college basketball.

So far this year, UT has beaten only one top 50 RPI team, and that was this past Sunday against the LSU Tigers. Unfortunately for them, a blowout win at the Notre Dame Fighting Irish doesn’t look impressive anymore because of how Notre Dame is rebuilding.

That is part of why they have the No. 137 ranked strength of schedule, which is why they are barely in the top 50 of the RPI themselves despite their 17-4 record and 7-1 SEC record, including a six-game conference winning streak. This team still has a lot to prove.

The good news for the Tennessee Lady Vols is that they haven’t lost to any bad teams this year. Their four losses are all to teams in the top 30 of the RPI, and three are in the top 25 while two are in the top 10.

As a result, they are about to enter a brutal stretch playing with a bit of house money under a first-year head coach who lost one of her top players this year, Zaay Green, to a season-ending injury. By running the table against everybody they were supposed to beat, this five-game stretch coming up is nothing but an opportunity…to make or break them. They just haven’t broken yet.

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All five games are against teams in the top 40 of the RPI. They are all ranked in either the top 25 of both polls or the top 25 of the RPI, and three of them are ranked in both. It all starts with their most brutal test possible on Sunday, as they visit the No. 1 ranked South Carolina Gamecocks, who are No. 2 in the RPI.

After that, though, they host the Mississippi State Bulldogs, in the top 15 of the RPI and in the top 10 of both polls. Then they will face LSU again, this time on the road, before returning home to face the Texas A&M Aggies, who are No. 15 in both polls and in the top 20 of the RPI. Finally, they will visit the Arkansas Razorbacks, who are No. 25 in both polls but just in the top 40 of the RPI.

With the way this thing is shaping up, a legitimate argument could be made that this five-game test goes from most to least difficult. That means the Lady Vols always have hope even as they lose, which is good news for them.

By the end of this stretch, it’s safe to say that UT’s strength of schedule will no longer be outside of the top 100. However, what will their record be? Are they true contenders this year, or are they the pretenders they have looked like in recent years?

Honestly, just two wins would make them look like contenders, but winning three of the five should be the goal. That would get this team to 20 wins with a pretty decent resume. And it would mean they overachieved given where everybody else stands.

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It’s worth noting that the Tennessee Lady Vols are currently in the midst of 10 straight games in which they are facing top 100 RPI teams. They have won three of the first four. But this is what the season comes down to. Starting on Super Bowl Sunday, we begin to learn just how much of a threat this team is.