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Texas A&M Aggies now a must-win for Tennessee Lady Vols

By Caleb Calhoun

KNOXVILLE, TN - JANUARY 21: Tennessee Volunteers fans hold up a cardboard photo of women's basketball coach Pat Summitt during the game against the Connecticut Huskies at Thompson-Boling Arena on January 21, 2012 in Knoxville, Tennessee. Tennessee defeated Connecticut 60-57. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
KNOXVILLE, TN - JANUARY 21: Tennessee Volunteers fans hold up a cardboard photo of women's basketball coach Pat Summitt during the game against the Connecticut Huskies at Thompson-Boling Arena on January 21, 2012 in Knoxville, Tennessee. Tennessee defeated Connecticut 60-57. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /
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After the Tennessee Lady Vols’ loss at the LSU Tigers, Kellie Harper’s women’s basketball Volunteers have to beat the Texas A&M Aggies.

It’s not their fault. The Tennessee Lady Vols really did try to schedule tough Kellie Harper’s first year on the job. However, they can’t control the fact that the Notre Dame Fighting Irish collapsed or that other major programs were historically bad.

What they can control, though, is that they have not secured enough quality wins at the moment to make up for that. After losing their third straight game Thursday, falling to the LSU Tigers on the road 75-65, this team is now 17-7 and 7-4 in league play. They only have one win over a top 50 RPI team, and it was by five against this same LSU squad at home.

Now, with the No. 79 ranked strength of schedule and only two games left against top 100 RPI teams, the Tennessee Lady Vols are in danger of missing out on their first ever NCAA Tournament. They have no choice but to beat the Texas A&M Aggies at home on Sunday. Without doing so, they will be in serious trouble.

Although they are No. 25 in the AP Poll, UT is currently unranked in the Coaches Poll and No. 47 in the RealTime RPI with the No. 79 ranked strength of schedule. That schedule is projected to fall to No. 85 at the end of the year, however, with their final three games coming against teams outside of the top 100.

Texas A&M is No. 18 in the RPI and the Coaches Poll and No. 16 in the AP Poll. They would undoubtedly be a second quality win to boost the Lady Vols. However, A&M wins, Tennessee’s only other chance at a quality win before the SEC Tournament is the very next game, and that’s on the road against the Arkansas Razorbacks, who are No. 23 in the AP Poll and No. 38 in the RPI.

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Beating a quality team on the road is much harder. Ideally, the Lady Vols need to win both games to build up their resume. But losing to Texas A&M puts them behind the eight-ball immediately, and it runs the very likely risk of them finishing the regular season with only one decent win, as Arkansas would be a favorite the following Thursday.

Losing both games would meant his team at best finishes 20-9, and while that seems solid, they would have only one quality win and a very low-rated strength of schedule. It would be low enough to push them toward the top 60 of the RPI, so if they got into the Big Dance, it would be on name recognition only.

What would kill them is the fact that they have failed so many opportunities at decent wins this year. Rocky Top lost at home to the Texas Longhorns and by four at the Kentucky Wildcats. They were blown out by the Stanford Cardinal, UConn Huskies, South Carolina Gamecocks and Mississippi State Bulldogs.

To be fair to the Tennessee Lady Vols, those were their four toughest games of the year, and only one of them, Mississippi State, was at home. That also happened to be the one game in which Rennia Davis couldn’t play because she had the flu.

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But it doesn’t change the fact that nobody would trust them against quality competition. As a result, they have to win on Sunday. It’s the only way to put them on track toward potentially erasing any doubt about their NCAA Tournament prospects.