Tennessee football: ESPN FPI predictions shows Vols 2020 schedule much tougher

Despite a higher ranking, ESPN’s 2020 power index has Tennessee football winning fewer games. That shows how much tougher the Volunteers schedule is.

Heading into 2019, Tennessee football was ranked surprisingly up at No. 15 in the ESPN preseason Football Power Index. The forecast was for them to go 9-3 in the regular season, only losing to the Florida Gators, Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide.

After an 0-2 start with two upset losses, they were obviously not going to live up to that. However, with their strong finish, they still managed to finish 8-5, although outside of the top 30 of the FPI.

So what would be in store for them this year? Well, they are No. 14, one spot higher than their preseason ranking in this year’s FPI. Somehow, though, they are projected to win fewer games than they were projected to win last year and than they actually won. Yes, the FPI has them going 7-5 on the year.

Obvious losses are to Alabama at home and Georgia on the road. However, the Oklahoma Sooners on the road are a likely loss as well. Things are a bit closer with Florida, since that game is in Knoxville, but the real kicker is that Tennessee football is expected to lose to the South Carolina Gamecocks, a team they blew out last year, on the road this year.

Taking all that into account, one thing is clear. The Vols took advantage of an easier schedule more than anything else, especially down the stretch, and two things make this schedule tougher. If you factor in those two things with the idea that UT won’t suffer two bad upsets like they had last year, then you can see why they will match their 7-5 regular season record.

In terms of things working against the Vols, well, one that stands out is the way their home and road slate works within the conference. Every other year, two of their three games among Florida, Georgia and Alabama are at home. While that seems like a good thing, if none of those games are winnable, that means Rocky Top is wasting home games.

It’s better for them, for instance, to play Alabama on the road. If you know a loss is coming, you don’t want that loss to take away a home game. Because it did, though, it puts another toss-up game in the road category, and this year, it is South Carolina.

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The other factor working against Tennessee football this year is the Vols actually have to play a tough team out of conference in Oklahoma. And they have to play them on the road. Last year, they didn’t play one Power Five non-conference team, and they played all of them at home.

Now, you can take that one with a grain of salt. After all, the Vols lost their first two games last year, both non-conference games, in shocking upsets, which set them behind the eight-ball the rest of the year. But those upset losses cancel out the two other things we are naming, which is why Jeremy Pruitt’s team is expected to go 7-5 for a second straight year.

Of course, 9-3 is certainly on the table should they beat Florida at home and South Carolina on the road. In a worst-case scenario, though, 5-7 could be on the table if they lose to the Kentucky Wildcats, who will be much better, and at the Arkansas Razorbacks. For some reason, the FPI only has the Vols at a 51 percent chance to win each game.

Simply put, this year, the road is tougher for Tennessee football. However, the Vols have lots of returning talent and a top 10 class, so despite what the FPI says, they should be much better. Will it pay off? Well, that’s where coaching comes into play. The 2020 season will show if the hot streak to end 2019 is proof of a program on the rise or was just part of an easy schedule.