Can Tennessee football’s 2020 upgrades outweigh harder schedule?

What wins out: The Tennessee football Volunteers 2020 improvements or their schedule?

Nobody expects Tennessee football to not be better in 2020. After all, the Vols have a redshirt senior quarterback in Jarrett Guarantano and much more depth all across the field. Their key losses are offset by key gains in experience.

All of this is why the Vols came in at No. 19 in last week’s Pro Football Focus Too-Early Top 25. There are clear analytical reasons to believe in the Vols and Guarantano specifically when it comes to their talent.

However, balancing out that talent is a much tougher schedule. After all, while Tennessee football is No. 19, the Vols also have to play four teams ranked ahead of them: the Alabama Crimson Tide, the Florida Gators, the Georgia Bulldogs and the Oklahoma Sooners.

Meanwhile, the Kentucky Wildcats are only one spot below them. Add in the fact that UT plays the South Carolina Gamecocks on the road, and that makes for six games the Vols have a legitimate chance at losing. Heck, if the Arkansas Razorbacks make any improvements, the Vols have to face them on the road as well along with Georgia and Oklahoma.

Simply put, the road is much more brutal this year. That’s why the ESPN Football Power Index as the Vols’ win total set at 6.3. They are below a 50 percent chance to win five of their games, including the four against those ranked ahead of them in PFF’s top 25 and then at South Carolina, meaning they’re projected to match last year’s 7-5 regular season record.

Last year, the Vols were projected to go 9-3 in the FPI’s preseason projections, and they would have gotten every game right were it not for UT’s two season-opening losses to the Georgia State Panthers and BYU Cougars. That projection was solely based on an easier schedule: four home games against Group of Five schools in non-conference games and South Carolina at home.

So here comes the real question: Will Tennessee football’s improved talent result in a much better season, or will it be offset by the tougher schedule? This is where Jeremy Pruitt’s coaching will really be put to the test.

More from Vols Football

• How to Win a GUARANTEED $200 Bonus Betting Just $5 on the Vols vs. Florida!
• Tennessee Football at Florida: Five Keys to a Vols Victory
• Week 3 SEC Power Rankings: Did Tennessee Football’s Win Help At All?
• Week 3 AP Polls: Why Did Tennessee Football Drop in the Polls?
• Tennessee Football: Top Five Performers in 30-13 Win vs. Austin Peay

At the moment, when it comes to those five losses, the Vols are at a 43 percent chance to beat South Carolina. Also, just recently, Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports provided a solid breakdown of why the Vols actually have a chance to upset the Alabama Crimson Tide this year. Assuming they pull off a big upset and beat South Carolina, though, their best-case scenario for 2020 is 9-3.

Meanwhile, there is a worst-case scenario. After all, Tennessee football is only at a 51 percent chance to beat Kentucky and a 54.4 percent chance to beat Arkansas. So the Vols could also stumble to 5-7 this year.

Which one will it be? Given all the momentum Pruitt is building on Rocky Top, he probably can’t afford to have a drop-off this year, even if the schedule is tougher. He needs to be able to hold onto what is right now a top five 2021 recruiting class.

There are plenty of things that went into play last year, including a couple of key injuries, that shouldn’t affect Tennessee football this year with more depth. But the Vols have to navigate a much more brutal road. So this year will help define Pruitt, his staff and his players.