3. Schedule
In 1997, Tennessee football’s opponents won 95 games and had a .638 winning percentage. That number dropped to 82 games and a .540 winning percentage in 1998. While they played the same number of teams with a winning record, UT had one more BCS opponent in 1997, two more top 25 opponents, two more top 10 opponents and one more top five opponent.
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Simply put, they had a much tougher schedule in 1997. Anecdotally, the Vols lost to the Florida Gators on the road and to the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the national title game. They got to face Florida at home in 1998 and the Florida State Seminoles in the national title game. Unlike Nebraska, FSU was not undefeated, and they were playing without their starting quarterback.
So the Vols’ two losses in 1997 were replaced by easier matchups in some way in 1998. But there’s even more to it. UT faced Florida in 1997 on week after visiting the UCLA Bruins. UCLA would go 10-2 that year and finish ranked No. 5. In 1998, the Vols’ toughest non-conference opponent was at Syracuse, who would finish 8-4 and ranked No. 24.
Rocky Top actually faced two Power Five opponents in 1997. They also took on the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who would finish 6-5. Their third opponent was the Southern Miss Golden Eagles, who would go 9-3, win the Conference USA and finish ranked No. 19. In 1998, their other two non-conference opponents, the Houston Cougars and UAB Blazers, went 3-8 and 4-7 respectively.
If you’re keeping score, that means Tennessee football faced three non-conference opponents with a winning record in 1997, two in BCS conferences, two who finished in the top 25 and one who finished in the top five. Meanwhile, in 1998 they faced one non-conference opponent with a winning record, one in a BCS conference, one who finished in the top 25 and none in the top five.
Finally, there’s the SEC Championship game. UT’s opponent in 1997 was the Auburn Tigers, who finished the year 10-3 and ranked No. 11 in the nation. In 1998, the Mississippi State Bulldogs backed into the title game, and they finished the year 8-5 and unranked. So even that game was a lot tougher.
Simply put, the 1997 schedule was much tougher than it was in 1998. It explained the two losses and also wore the Vols down a lot more. Things like Manning getting injured because of a dogfight in the SEC Title game took their toll as well.