Stat shows Tennessee football should stick with Jarrett Guarantano, change play-calling

The Tennessee football Volunteers should just change their play-calling.

After two deep touchdown passes as the only highlights for Tennessee football in its loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide, the debate surrounding Jarrett Guarantano rages on. Heading into the bye week with a 2-3 record, what should the Vols do with their fifth-year senior quarterback.

Well, those TDs to Jalin Hyatt and Josh Palmer are part of a larger trend throughout the year that may show what the Vols need to do. They may want to stick with Guarantano but just change up their play-calling.

SEC Stat Chat has revealed that Guarantano is actually the best in the league at throwing the ball downfield under pressure. In fact, a tweet ranking the quarterbacks’ efficiency at such throws shows nobody is even close to him.

The SEC's most accurate downfield throwers when pressured per Depth Adj Accuracy% - min 10 att

1. Guarantano 64%
2. Corral 59.8%
3. Trask 57.9%
4. Franks 53.9%
5. Jones 49.7%
6. Bennett 47.2%
7. Hill 42.6%
8. Nix 36.2%
9. Brennan 33.9%
10. Costello 33.6%

SEC AVR = 42.8%
— Clark Brooks (@SEC_StatCat) October 28, 2020

Looking at that stat, the goal for Tennessee football is simple. Jim Chaney needs to simplify the playbook and only call deep passes down the field when he lets Guarantano air it out. Why else should he try anything else?

It’s clear he shouldn’t have to worry about Guarantano being under pressure. As that stat shows, he’s the best at deep passes under pressure. He had passes of 38 yards, 27 yards and 48 yards against Alabama. At the Georgia Bulldogs, he had touchdown passes of 27 and 34 yards, and at the South Carolina Gamecocks, he had a 33-yard pass and 32-yard touchdown pass on one drive.

Chaney also doesn’t have to abandon the run game. Ty Chandler and Eric Gray are elite backs who can run behind an interior line that has not been the weakness up front this year with a superstar in Trey Smith and a veteran in Brandon Kennedy.

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Simply put, this playbook should be video game playbooks from NCAA Football and Madden games in the mid-90s. Either run to the left, run to the right, call a draw or take a shot downfield. That shot is bound to go for a touchdown multiple times a game if you do it enough.

Think about all the criticism of Guarantano throughout this year. In the opener against the South Carolina Gamecocks, he missed on too many crossing routes. Of his three interceptions this year, two were on out-routes and another was a mid-range pass over the middle.

Now, Guarantano’s three fumbles are somewhat of a different story, but if he’s stepping up in the pocket to throw downfield, he’s less likely to be hit by an end while backing up trying to avoid pressure. Outside of a miscommunication fumble against the Kentucky Wildcats, none of those are his fault anyway.

Taking all this into account, Guarantano alone isn’t the problem. Chaney not properly utilizing what he does best is the problem. Palmer, Brandon Johnson and now Hyatt have all proven they have the size and the skill to win one-on-one battles in open space.

There is no reason for Tennessee football to not simplify the playbook and let Guarantano just air it out. This is what Chaney should be working on in the bye week. Jeremy Pruitt is right that Guarantano gives the Vols the best chance to win. However, that won’t be the case if the staff doesn’t use Guarantano effectively.