Tennessee football gets new advantage with NCAA OT rule change

Questions surround Tennessee football, but Josh Heupel’s success is about his offensive play-calling and quarterback play. We’ve written at length about how the quarterback play could become an advantage. Another NCAA ruling now gives his play-calling an advantage too.

The organization changed the overtime rules this week to that moves teams requiring to go for two on PATs to the second overtime instead of starting it in the third, as is tradition. But to another level, teams will just run alternating two-point conversion plays.

If Tennessee football is able to keep games close against superior teams this year, something they couldn’t do under Jeremy Pruitt, that gives them a clear advantage should they reach overtime. Josh Heupel’s success rate shows that.

Just last year alone, the UCF Knights were 4-of-6 on two-point conversions. They led the league in made two-point conversions with that, and their 66.7 percent efficiency rate was way above the standard average conversion rate, which is estimated between 40 and 55 percent.

This wasn’t an anomaly either, although it was the best example. Teams in which Heupel was head coach, offensive coordinator or co-offensive coordinator are a combined 9-of-16 historically. That’s skewed as well, as he was 2-of-5 with the Oklahoma Sooners, where he didn’t have full reign and didn’t master his craft.

It’s well-documented Heupel first developed his style when he took over the offensive coordinator position with the Utah State Aggies. Dating back to that time, teams with him as an offensive coordinator or head coach are 7-of-11 on two-point conversions, or 63.6 percent. Again, that’s well above the average.

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Only one year did Heupel convert less than 50 percent of two-point conversions since going to Utah State. That was in 2017 with the Missouri Tigers, when he was 0-for-1. Simply put, he is very good at two-point plays, and last year showed that in a big way.

Taking that into account, Tennessee football has a major chance to get a couple of signature wins this year if they can keep games close. Once it gets close, it’s already anybody’s game, and if they could get it to a second overtime, they’ll have a decided advantage.

Heck, this data shows they should consider going for two and the win in situations they only need an extra point to try. Heupel has been that successful and above average on two-point plays, to the point that he should consider going for it every time.

That won’t happen, but there’s a case that it should. Doing it throughout regulation gives Rocky Top a chance to steal a game or two as well if they are keeping it close. Given their situation, it may be what needs to happen.

Of course, as we already mentioned, the key here is Tennessee football being able to keep games close. Pruitt was horrendous at keeping the Vols in games with elite teams, as he consistently lost in blowout fashion. We don’t know what Heupel’s teams will be this year, but it’s clear they’ll be outmatched in some games this year. If they can keep it close, this rule gives them an advantage.