Tennessee football: Run game will make or break Vols, analyst says

Spring practice is in the books. Tennessee football heads into the summer with tons of questions, many of which are particularly related to the NCAA investigation into the program. When that investigation ends, what he results of it are and how it affects recruiting long-term are all hanging over the heads of Rocky Top.

After a high-scoring Orange and White game, though, there is one bit of excitement, and it involves the passing game. All three quarterbacks showed lots of promise, and two more are set to join the race. That makes the passing game the storyline for UT heading into the offseason.

However, while that combined with defensive concerns become major stories on the field, one analysts believes neither is the biggest question. Brad Crawford of 247Sports said the “make or break factor” for Tennessee football will actually be what the Vols do on the ground this year. Here’s a bit of what he said about that.

"Tennessee’s rushing attack may have taken a backseat to passing production in the spring game, but if the Vols are going to be impactful in Josh Heupel’s first season, stellar play on the ground will have to materialize. In three years at UCF, Heupel led the AAC in total offense back-to-back seasons and ranked in the top tier of the conference in rushing yards. With Ty Chandler leaving Knoxville for North Carolina and Eric Gray bolting for Oklahoma, Tennessee’s group of running backs are unproven and one of the SEC East’s biggest question marks entering the summer."

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A look at Josh Heupel’s history shows that Crawford is telling the truth. Despite all the talk about tempo and a high-powered passing attack, an elite rushing attack has defined how successful Heupel’s offenses, and by association his teams, have been.

Each year with the UCF Knights, his teams’ rush yards per game and rush yards per carry decreased. This past year, his worst year, he went 6-4, despite averaging 86 plays and 357 passing yards per game. It also happened to be the first year UCF averaged fewer than five yards a carry under him, and his teams averaged 210 yards on the ground per game

In 2019, UCF averaged only 316 passing yards per game, 41 yards below what they averaged in 2020. However, they averaged over five yards a carry and over 224 yards a game. With that increase in rushing, they averaged over one point more per game and went 10-3 on the year.

Heupel’s best year was obviously 2018. That was also his worst passing year with UCF, as his team only averaged 257 yards through the air a game. On the ground, though, they averaged 266 yards a game and averaged nearly six yards a carry. That resulted in them averaging 43.2 points a game and going undefeated in the regular season.

See the correlation? Tennessee football needs a dominant rushing attack for Heupel to work out. They have options there, even with Ty Chandler and Eric Gray gone, thanks to the arrivals of Tiyon Evans and Jaylen Wright and the return of Jabari Small, Dee Beckwith, Len’Neth Whitehead and Tee Hodge. A couple of those guys stepping up will define UT’s first year.