Arguably, the biggest offseason in all of college basketball belongs to the Tennessee Vols. Rick Barnes lost a few key players who were expected to play big roles next season, like forwards JP Estrella and Jaylen Carey, and guard Bishop Boswell. However, Barnes has replaced them with a championship-level roster through an aggressive transfer portal approach.
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Tennessee landed five-star Juke Harris, who averaged north of 20 points per game last year at Wake Forest. Add in Dai Dai Ames from Cal, Jalen Haralson from Notre Dame, Terrence Hill Jr. from VCU, and Tyler Lundblade, the defending Missouri Valley Player of the Year, and Tennessee has turned a sticky situation into a strong offseason.
Despite that, not all of the national media has respect for what Barnes did this offseason. Joe Lunardi, the most famous bracketologist, has Tennessee pegged as a No. 5 seed in his latest update. This seems puzzling. The Vols, on paper, have a top-10 roster in the country, but Lunardi doesn’t appear to fully respect what Barnes has built.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi tabs Tennessee as a No. 5 seed in his 76-team Men’s Bracketology projection 🍊
— FOX Sports Knoxville (@FOXSportsKnox) June 19, 2026
Lunardi slated the #Vols as a No. 5 seed in the Midwest region this week in his summer bracketology projection.
The Big Orange are matched up against No. 12 seed High Point in the… pic.twitter.com/2ul72KhRUA
Joe Lunardi is dead wrong about Tennessee basketball
How does this make sense? A No. 5 seed? Tennessee has a top roster in college basketball. And sure, it makes sense not to put them as a No. 1 seed until you see how everything gels, but a No. 5 feels low. The Vols have a lot of new faces and could have a bumpy start to the season, but there is too much talent on this team for them to be seeded that low.
Tennessee was a No. 6 seed last year, and this roster on paper looks better than what they had in 2026. Sure, the schedule this year might be a bit tougher, but overall, it’s hard to argue this team doesn’t have more talent. Defensively, they might not be as strong on the perimeter, but with Miles Rubin, Braedan Lue, and Christian Fermin, Tennessee will undoubtedly be able to protect the rim and rebound at a high level, which has always been a staple of Barnes' identity.
Offensively, this team is completely different. The Vols have a much better group of shooters with Ames, Harris, Hill, and Lundblade. Haralson isn’t a great shooter, but he can score at an elite level. The Vols have multiple guys who can step up on any given night, compared to last season when it was mainly Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament. It's puzzling how Lunardi doesn't like what this team brings.
In Vegas, Tennessee sits at +2500 to win it all. Teams like Alabama (+4000) and Arkansas (also +2500) are being ranked higher than the Vols, with the Razorbacks even projected as a No. 2 seed. I understand not being as high on Tennessee as some others, but Lunardi feels way off on this one, especially with how high he is on teams that have worse odds. I could see this one coming back to bite him later.
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