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The latest CBS bowl game projection exposes the floor Tennessee must avoid

For a team with playoff aspirations, Las Vegas Bowl equals failure.
Tennessee football coach Josh Heupel walk towards the locker room after the loss to Vanderbilt in an NCAA college football game on Nov. 29, 2025, in Knoxville, Tennessee. NCAA college football game between Vanderbilt and Tennessee on Nov. 29, 2025, in Knoxville, Tennessee.
Tennessee football coach Josh Heupel walk towards the locker room after the loss to Vanderbilt in an NCAA college football game on Nov. 29, 2025, in Knoxville, Tennessee. NCAA college football game between Vanderbilt and Tennessee on Nov. 29, 2025, in Knoxville, Tennessee. | Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

2026 kind of feels like a make-or-break year for Josh Heupel. Winning only eight games after making the College Football Playoff last season was disappointing, especially with a few losses that shouldn’t have happened. That’s why this year feels so important for the Vols. It's not necessarily playoffs-or-bust for Tennessee, but it has to be a year where we see a lot of growth with this team. Show some progress with the freshman quarterback, and let's make an even bigger push in 2027 in year two of the Knowles defense.

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With that said, CBS Sports dropped its bowl projections, and I'm not sure Vols fans will be thrilled. They have Tennesse taking on USC in the Las Vegas Bowl on New Year's Eve. Last year in th Las Vegas Bowl,10-2 Utah beat the brakes off of 7-5 Nebraska 44-22. If Tennessee comes into this matchup as a 10-2 team, Vols fans should be furious they're not in the playoffs. Not to mention, if they go 7-5, that also isn't good enough. It just feels like this bowl is a lose-lose situation for Tennessee. I guess playing USC (with probably 50 opt-outs) would be fun?

The Las Vegas Bowl isn't going to cut it for Tennessee

After an 8-5 year, Tennessee can't have another mediocre season. Even with average quarterback play, this team looks pretty good in every other area to make a run for the College Football Playoffs. On offense, the Vols have a good enough run game and pass catchers to compete. The big question is, can the pass protection hold up, and is the quarterback play going to be good enough?

Beyond that, on defense, Tennessee should have one of the best secondaries in the conference. They completely revamped the safeties room, and it's now very deep with Qua Moss, TJ Metcalf, Dejuan Lane, and others. Ty Redmond and Kayin Lee are a very good combination of starting cornerbacks. The linebacking core is amazing, with the Vols having five or so capable players. The pass rush is a bit of a concern, but it's not a major worry.

The Vols have the talent to chase something bigger, and that means aiming beyond the Las Vegas Bowl.

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