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Vegas odds say Tennessee might be closer to contention than anyone thinks

Vegas thinks Tennessee can win it all.
Tennessee forward DeWayne Brown II (6) passes the ball in front of Auburn's Elyjah Freeman (6) during a NCAA basketball game between the Tennessee Volunteers and Auburn Tigers at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center in Knoxville, Tenn., on Jan. 31, 2026.
Tennessee forward DeWayne Brown II (6) passes the ball in front of Auburn's Elyjah Freeman (6) during a NCAA basketball game between the Tennessee Volunteers and Auburn Tigers at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center in Knoxville, Tenn., on Jan. 31, 2026. | Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This has easily been one of the most exciting offseasons in Tennessee basketball history because Rick Barnes has completely flipped the way he built the roster. Rather than focusing mostly on toughness and defense, Barnes went after more scoring and shooting while still adding players capable of holding their own defensively. It was a complete 180 for the future Hall of Famer.

Tennessee's Felix Okpara gaining serious momentum as one of the NBA draft’s top risers

Because of that shift in philosophy, Tennessee added a boatload of talent this offseason. It started with Missouri Valley Player of the Year Tyler Lundblade, and Rick Barnes continued reloading with additions like Dai Dai Ames from Cal, Miles Rubin, Jalen Haralson, Terrence Hill Jr., and arguably the biggest addition of them all, Juke Harris.

It's hard to ignore the fact that Tennessee added a roster full of elite scorers, and Vegas has taken notice as well.

Odds for the Tennessee basketball tow in the national title

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.

Tennessee comes in at +2500, which is ninth in the nation, tied with Michigan State, Arizona, and Texas.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Rick Barnes has a real shot to win it all next year

Being placed in the same spot as Michigan State and Arizona is no small feat for the Vols. Arizona made the Final Four last season, and Tom Izzo consistently has Michigan State competing at an elite level. Tennessee being grouped alongside those programs shows that Vegas views the Vols as a legitimate national title contender next year.

There is still going to be an adjustment period for this team because of all the new faces coming in. Players will have to learn their roles and fully buy into what Tennessee wants to do. There’s only one basketball, and not everyone will be able to be the star every night. Luckily for the Vols, culture has always been one of Rick Barnes’ biggest strengths, so there’s no reason to doubt they’ll figure it out.

There are definitely some fans worried that this roster has too many scoring guards, lacks reliable big men, and could take a step back defensively. But honestly, I think Tennessee’s frontcourt is good enough. The Vols may not have a dominant post scorer, but their big men can rebound, protect the paint, and do the dirty work needed to support the guards offensively. Plus, even if the perimeter defense isn’t amazing, Tennessee didn’t add any players who are complete liabilities on that end either.

The bottom line is, Tennessee’s new roster construction is going to create a different kind of team. This group is built to win games by outscoring opponents, not like previous Barnes teams that would grind out ugly wins 59-57.

Either way, November will be very important in seeing how the Vols stack up against elite competition. Tennessee is playing in the Players Era tournament once again and should face a few top teams, which will give fans a much better sense of how good Tennessee really is.

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