Josh Heupel's team this fall has a lot of uncertainty and questions around it. Who is the quarterback? How will they look? Will the pass protection hold? Is the defense legit, or is it all hype? Given this, the sportsbooks don't think Tennessee has a great shot to be a real contender in the SEC next season.
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The Tennessee Volunteers’ win total is set at 7.5, meaning Vegas expects the Vols to finish around 7–5 or 8–4, very similar to last season. The new nine-game SEC schedule doesn't do the Vols any favors. Let’s break down the Tennessee schedule into tiers and see if we can find a path to eight wins.
Take a look at the full schedule, as we’ll be jumping around the tiers of it to piece together these wins.
The 2🍊26 schedule is here!
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How the Vols get to 8 wins
No ifs, ands, or buts about it, Tennesse should have two free wins on the schedule at home against Furman in week one and against Kennesaw State in week three. Last year, Furman went 6-6 in the FCS, and while Kennesaw State had a nice season in the Conference USA, they shouldn't give the Vols too much trouble.
Next up is the middle tier of Tennessee’s schedule. The Vols go on the road to play Georgia Tech in Week 2, where they’ll face a new quarterback, and then host Auburn and Kentucky . They’ll also have road trips to Arkansas and South Carolina during this stretch. Tennessee needs to be 4-1 or better in this period. They will travel to Colombia after hosting Alabama, which could be a letdown spot, but ultimately, the Vols can only afford to lose one of these contests.
For the sake of this exercise, let's say that the Vols are 6-1 at this point. Josh Heupel has to pick up two wins in the five toughest games of its schedule. The Vols host Texas, Alabama, and LSU, and they travel to Texas A&M and Vanderbilt. If they can beat two of the five Tennesse teams at eight wins, and they beat the over.
Ultimately, we won’t know this team’s ceiling until we see how the quarterback position performs. The defense looks much improved, but with so many questions on offense, it’s hard to say for sure. If Tennessee can get even average quarterback play and the defense takes the expected step forward, they could be in for a big year.
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