Tennessee basketball: Upcoming schedule gives Vols a shot at SEC title

Tennessee basketball is second in the Southeastern Conference. The remaining schedule gives the Volunteers an outside shot at the league championship.

After their huge win over the Kentucky Wildcats on the road Tuesday, Tennessee basketball is firmly second place in the SEC standings. But to make this week better for the Vols, the Auburn Tigers lost at home to the Texas A&M Aggies the next day.

At 8-3 in the conference, Tennessee is essentially two games behind Bruce Pearl’s team, who is now 9-2. That’s because Auburn gets the tiebreaker since they won the head-to-head match-up.

Still, with the upcoming schedule, Rick Barnes’s team now has an outside shot at the SEC regular season championship. With seven games left on the schedule for every team, we were able to break down all the legitimate contenders for the championship.

On each contender’s schedule, there are sure wins, likely wins, toss-ups, and likely losses. So what falls in each category?

Sure wins are home games against teams with losing records in the SEC or overall and outside of the Top 50 in the RPI. Likely wins are home games against teams with winning records in the SEC and road games against teams .500 or below overall.

Toss-ups are road games against teams with a losing record in the SEC but a winning record overall or home games against teams higher ranked in the RPI and with better overall and conference records. Meanwhile, likely losses are road games against teams with a winning record in the SEC and overall.

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Using this method, Tennessee basketball has two likely losses left on the schedule, against the Alabama Crimson Tide and Mississippi State Bulldogs. However, both teams are only 6-5 in the conference, and they are No. 42 and No. 55 in the RPI respectively. As a result, both games could be wins.

Meanwhile, they have one toss-up, at the Georgia Bulldogs. But Georgia at home is one of two sure wins along with the South Carolina Gamecocks at home. The Florida Gators at home and Ole Miss Rebels on the road are two likely wins.

Let’s assume they take care of business in likely and sure wins. That would assure at the very worst a 12-6 record in the SEC.

But for Tennessee basketball, that’s not enough to win the conference. Since their likely losses are both close to being toss-ups, it only makes sense that among those and the one toss-up game they get at least one win.

As a result, a reasonable projection is 13-5 in the conference. Currently, they are one of seven teams with five conference losses or fewer.

But assuming they met our projections, they would be guaranteed to finish ahead of Florida, who would get five losses by losing to them, and Kentucky, whom they’ve already swept. Assuming their likely losses, then Alabama, Mississippi State and the Missouri Tigers would have the tiebreakers if they all had five losses since they would all own head-to-head.

There’s more, though. Mississippi State and Mizzou still have to play each other, so one will move below the Vols. Meanwhile, by our standards, all three teams have at least two likely losses on their schedule.

So again, assuming these projections play out reasonably, Tennessee basketball’s only competition going forward is the Auburn Tigers to win the SEC. What’s Auburn’s schedule?

Well, they have two toss-up games at the Arkansas Razorbacks and Florida Gators. Every other game is a likely or sure win.

So the Tigers, keeping with projections, would finish 15-3 while Tennessee finishes 13-5. That’s the most reasonable assumption.

However, this is where we get to the outside shot at the SEC Championship. What happens if Tennessee basketball upsets both teams projected to beat them, Alabama and Mississippi State? As we said, those are barely likely losses.

Meanwhile, what if Auburn loses both toss-up games? All of a sudden, Tennessee finishes 15-3 while the Tigers finish 14-4 in the conference.

The Vols would have to win out, but that is a possibility. And they have a reasonable outside shot at the title as a result. Even if they lose one game, though, there’s always the off-chance that Auburn stumbles in a home game. Hey, they just did that earlier this week.

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As a result, Auburn is still a heavy favorite to win the SEC. But Tuesday’s win at Kentucky and the remaining schedule gives Tennessee basketball an outside shot at the regular season championship. And even being in the conversation is a major testament to the job Barnes has done in his third year. We’ll know a lot more about their chances this weekend after they face Alabama.

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Tennessee basketball: Favorable remaining schedule gives Vols outside shot at SEC title

By Caleb Calhoun | Feb 9, 2018

Tennessee basketball is second in the Southeastern Conference. The remaining schedule gives the Volunteers an outside shot at the league championship.