Tennessee basketball: Vols still being underrated for 2020-2021 despite hype

A wave of predictions placed high expectations on Tennessee basketball for Rick Barnes’ fifth season. However, the Volunteers are still being underrated.

Generally, in college basketball, if you return all but one starter, including your leading scorer, from a Power Five team that had a winning record, and then if you add a top five recruiting class in, you have a top 10 caliber team. Tennessee basketball is in that situation, and it’s why a wave of predictions came out with lots of hype behind them for next year.

However, those predictions are still underrating Rick Barnes’ sixth team on Rocky Top. Last week, a couple of predictions had UT outside of the top 10. Andy Katz said the Vols should finish No. 1 or No. 2 in the SEC, but he had them at No. 16 overall. Joe Lunardi had them as a No. 5 seed in his way too early bracketology, which obviously puts them in the No. 17 to No. 20 range.

This is all for a team that returns its leading scorer, its three leading rebounders, its two leaders in assists-per-game average, its leader in steals and its five leaders in blocked shots. Oh, they also are also adding two five-star guards in Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer, who are 6’5″ and 6’6″ respectively, along with 6’7″ four-star wingman Corey Walker Jr. That’s why their class is No. 5.

Beyond that, though, the Vols could potentially add four-star wingman Malachi Wideman, who stands at 6’4″ and committed as a wide receiver for the football program but could play basketball. They also have transfer guard Victory Bailey Jr., who shot 40 percent from three with the Oregon Ducks in 2018-2019 and sat out this past year, becoming available.

Now, to be fair, a young collection of talent is worthy of skepticism. Of course it’s why you put a team tepidly in the top 25. But the other schools with top five recruiting classes weren’t targeted like that.

Look at the Kentucky Wildcats and Duke Blue Devils, who each lost their three leading scorers. They are both ahead of Tennessee basketball specifically because of their recruiting classes coming in. Kentucky is No. 9 in Katz’s preseason rankings, while Duke is No. 11. Meanwhile, Lunardi has both as No. 2 seeds.

To be fair, they both have six commitments and more five-stars overall, but when you can only play five players at a time, the quality of talent combined with returning production should matter much more than quantity. And the Vols have a lot more returning production.

So what could it be that puts more hype behind Kentucky and Duke than the Vols? Well, it seems as if Katz and Lunardi are taking Barnes’ history into account. And you honestly don’t have to go too far back.

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In 2009, the Texas Longhorns returned all of their top scorers except for their go-to scoring guard, just like they are this year with Jordan Bowden leaving. They also added a top five recruiting class with two five-stars and two four-stars, just like this class.

Things started off well as a result, as Barnes got this team to 17-0 and No. 1 in the nation. However, they finished the season losing 10 of 17 games, including the first round of the NCAA Tournament, so they went from 17-0 to 24-10 and an unceremonious exit. The lasting impression of that one year has people always skeptical of how Barnes handles expectations.

What’s clear, though, is Barnes doing things differently with Tennessee basketball. The only year he had high expectations on Rocky Top, 2018-2019, he led the Vols to No. 1 in the nation and 30 wins, so he met those expectations. As a result, evidence actually points to UT being underrated for next year.

Sure, Bowden is gone. But the Vols still return their other three players who averaged double-figures, not counting Lamonte Turner since he was done in December. That includes John Fulkerson, Yves Pons and Santiago Vescovi. Fulkerson and Pons, joining Uros Plavsic, Olivier Nkamhoua and Drew Pember, make for the Vols’ entire post game returning.

Then there is Josiah-Jordan James, whom everybody forgets was a five-star on this past team since he played all year banged up. Now, he is expected to be fully healthy. Combine all this talent with the additions we talked about, and based on the standards Kentucky is held to, Tennessee basketball should at least be in the top 10.