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New Bowl Game projection raises a major concern for Tennessee football

Athlon Sports thinks Tennessee will be in a low tier game.
Tennessee wide receiver Braylon Staley (14) celebrates a touchdown during the Aflac Kickoff Game between the Volunteers and Syracuse held at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga., on August 30, 2025.
Tennessee wide receiver Braylon Staley (14) celebrates a touchdown during the Aflac Kickoff Game between the Volunteers and Syracuse held at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga., on August 30, 2025. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Going into next season, Tennessee has a plethora of ways this year could go. Some think this team is a College Football Playoff dark horse, while others believe this team might struggle to find a bowl game. The projections are all over the map for this year's team, and it likely comes down to how well Tennessee's quarterback plays. If Tennessee's freshmen, whether it's Faizon Brandon or George MacIntyre, can exceed expectations, Tennessee certainly has a chance to be a playoff team. However, if they struggle, it could be a long year.

Josh Heupel is once again using a Vol legend to recruit David Gabriel Georges

The defense has its own set of concerns as well. They are implementing a new scheme under Jim Knowles, which usually takes several years to install fully. However, Tennessee benefits from having many former Penn State players and coaches on staff who are familiar with Knowles' defensive philosophy. They do have an influx of talent, which makes this unit one of the most underrated in the nation.

Given this, Tennessee fans likely aren't going to like where Athlon thinks they will end up in next year's bowl season.

Tennessee is heading to the Las Vegas Bowl on New Year's Eve, according to Athlon's latest projections. They will take on a fun Arizona team at Allegiant Stadium, led by veteran quarterback Noah Fifita. This is far from where the Vols should be, as this suggests they expect Tennessee will finish with six to eight wins, which is far from ideal.

Tennessee Bowl projection is a slap in the face

What stands out is that Tennessee has a way better team than the ones usually playing in the Las Vegas Bowl. Honestly, this is just their starting point, not their peak. It's frustrating to see the national media losing faith in Heupel, especially since he’s made so many positive changes this offseason.

First off, Tennessee hit the portal very hard, and the defense has gone from a liability last season to a likely strength this year. The Vols are consistently one of the best offenses in the nation under Heupel, and despite a young quarterback taking the helm, it's doubtful they will fall completely on their face. Is a setback possible? No doubt. In fact, it's probably likely. However, I don't see a scenario where the unit becomes a complete liability. There's too much talent for that to happen, and Heupel is too good of a play caller for Tennessee's offense to completely stumble.

The Vols have a pretty difficult schedule, but it's always complicated in the SEC. Teams get overrated, and others emerge from nowhere in this conference. Nobody thought Ole Miss would perform as they did last season, and they nearly made it to the National Title. Could Tennessee have a similar year?

I think they could, as anything is possible, but it's clear the national media has accepted that they don’t believe Heupel can be an elite coach. He and Tennessee have a lot to prove this fall because the Las Vegas Bowl is a pretty disrespectful outcome in year six.

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