Year after year in the Josh Heupel era, Tennessee is always viewed as an afterthought in the SEC, even when the Vols have a legitimate team. This year, however, I think the sportsbooks and national media are quietly beginning to give them the respect they deserve.
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This might sound bold, but Tennessee could be a dark horse this year. Let me break it down. DraftKings released the latest odds for some of the biggest college football games next fall, and Tennessee is only a 7-point home underdog against Texas when they meet at Neyland on September 26 to open up SEC play. Historically, home underdogs within a touchdown are often viewed as solid value plays, and I love this spot that Tennessee is in.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Game spreads for TWO Tennessee Football games have been released by DraftKings 🍊
— FOX Sports Knoxville (@FOXSportsKnox) June 4, 2026
DraftKings released their “Games of the Year” spreads this week, and the #Vols have two games on the list.
Texas (-7) at Tennessee
Alabama (-1.5) at Tennessee
The Big Orange will open SEC play… pic.twitter.com/C5jIdVxLym
Tennessee has the respect of Vegas
Many fans might see it as a slight to be underdogs in the Alabama game and now the Texas game, but I think it’s the complete opposite. In fact, I think it’s a sign that the sportsbooks have a lot of respect for what Heupel is building. He brought in Jim Knowles to call the defense and recruited a ton of high-level transfers. Add that in with a very good high school class, and Tennessee does have a very good roster on paper with a proven staff running the show.
Let’s put it this way. Texas has one of the best rosters in the country and is ranked in the top five in just about every early rankings. Quarterback Arch Manning is the preseason Heisman favorite right now, and if he can become more consistent against top-tier opponents, he could be a real problem. The talent is clearly there, but he still has to put it together. Texas also brings a stacked defense under Will Muschamp, and Sark has all the weapons he needs on offense to make it work. This is probably his most complete team yet. Even so, Vegas still believes Tennessee has a chance to pull off the upset.
Seven points to me says Texas is better right now, but Tennessee can definitely do it. Being a touchdown underdog suggests Texas isn’t significantly better on paper. If Tennessee can show that its defense has improved and the quarterback play is better than expected, this one could come down to the wire.
The good news is that we’ll know pretty quickly. In Week 2 under the lights in Atlanta, Tennessee will play Georgia Tech. If the quarterback looks like a deer in the headlights, it’s probably not a good sign for what will happen against Texas. On the other hand, if they show that the offense can compete and the defense is truly improved, it’s game on in Week 4 when Tennessee hosts Texas.
All of this sets the stage for September 17 in Neyland to be a massive game in front of a rowdy crowd, setting the tone for SEC play.
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